405
FXUS64 KLIX 251734 AAB
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Tonight through Thursday morning, upper level ridging will build in
to dominate the upper level pattern. As a result, conditions will be
a little drier on Wednesday. We could still see an isolated to
scattered storm or two (PoP are around 10-20% for the area), mainly
for the afternoon and evening hours as these will be the typical
summertime diurnally driven storms. These storms would have the
potential for lightning and brief, gusty sub-severe (30-50mph)
winds.

Generally, temperatures will be quite warm with little relief
expected from precipitation. Highs will be in the mid 90s with heat
index values in the low to mid 100s. Thanks to the drier air and
slightly better mixing expected, we should stay below heat advisory
criteria mainly for our northwestern areas. Areas around Lake
Pontchartrain and portions of South Mississippi and the MS coast
will still be expecting to see temperatures near or above 108
degrees. Consequently, a heat advisory has been issued for these
locations. Regardless of heat advisory status, it will still be hot
and will be imperative to take frequent breaks and hydrate often!
MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

There is not a lot of difference as we approach the end of the week
as a normal to slightly higher than normal chance of rain continues
even into the next week. There is the potential for a strong or
severe storm each day now that the convective temps have risen back
into the 90s. Just relating to a normal summer regime with no other
disturbance or dynamic system involved, it`s harder to get severe
storms when convective temps drop into the mid 80s like yesterday vs
the 90s. Since storms develop with their intensity tied to heating
during these situations, it makes sense that the more heat load a
storm can get, the stronger it can be. This will be the case through
much of the extended as there will be strong heating each day with
no organized disturbance to help.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Outside of convection, VFR conditions are anticipated through the
cycle. Coverage of convection is very isolated today...so a short
fused TEMPO isn`t impossible, but unlikely at this time for the
local terminals this afternoon. Did add PROBs as there could be a
complex of storms early Thursday morning move east to west from
the MS Gulf Coast into southeast Louisiana. Timing is generally
between 12-18z respectively with the potential for additional
convection in the afternoon. (Frye)


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Winds will generally be light onshore to easterly flow this week. It
will be relatively quiet convection wise on Wednesday but isolated
to scattered thunderstorms around the early morning hours are
forecast basically every day with the better chances later in the
week. Any storms can cause locally higher winds and waves along with
possibly a waterspout. -BL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  94  72  92 /  10  30  20  40
BTR  74  95  74  93 /  10  30  20  50
ASD  73  94  72  91 /  10  30  30  50
MSY  79  95  78  93 /   0  20  20  60
GPT  75  94  74  90 /  20  40  40  50
PQL  73  95  72  91 /  20  40  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ039-057>060-064-
     070-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ070-071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...BL