Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
356 FXUS64 KLIX 302333 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 633 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 A stationary boundary draped along the SE LA coast will serve as a focus for convection throughout the day today. Coverage is not expected to be as much north of the I-10 corridor as slightly drier air is in place north of the front. The cooler and drier air north of the front will keep temps up to 5 degrees below average for this time of year. Along and south of the aforementioned front has more moisture to work with as PW is up around 2-2.1 inches. Therefore, if there is any risk with this activity, it`s locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding mainly in urban areas. The upper-level trough across the Great Lakes region is expected to reinforce the northwesterly flow aloft and bring in slightly drier air aloft. This will promote the stalled front to keep slowly pushing offshore. This will also help keep most of the convection farther offshore. So, with the drier air moving in as well as the focus for convection moving away, expect Sunday to be drier than today while remaining slightly below average in terms of temperature. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Drier low-level boundary layer air will move into the area will move into the area on Monday as northwest flow aloft continues over the area as the trough over the Great Lakes region only barely moves to the south. This will only promote lower rain chances and slightly below average temps. Dry air continues to be the theme as Tuesday will feature not only dry low-level air, but a pocket of drier mid-level air looks to come into the area and decrease PW to around 1.3 inches, further supporting lower rain chances and below average temps. A subtle impulse on the backside of the trough across the Mid- Atlantic is expected to dive southward across the mid-MS River Valley. There are some differences in timing with this impulse but it seems like most guidance is agreeing that it will come across the lower MS River Valley late Tuesday or during the day Wednesday. This impulse would support active and potentially organized convection. However, moisture seems to be limited at this time as that aforementioned pocket of dry mid-level air seems to stick around Tuesday and Wednesday and PW hangs around 1.2 inches. This will largely stunt convection, but if we are able to have more moisture, we could see isolated organized convection on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Most terminals were VFR at forecast issuance. However, a frontal boundary was near KBTR and KHUM, with scattered SHRA/TSRA in the vicinity. The more problematic of the two was KHUM, where areal coverage of TSRA was much greater. Will carry VCSH at KBTR, where SHRA should be departing, and will use TEMPO TSRA at KHUM, where it may be several more hours before convection diminishes. The remainder of the night should see VFR conditions. On Sunday, the main question will be the location of the frontal boundary. Current thinking is that it should drift a little further southward. Will only carry a mention, PROB30, at KHUM during the afternoon hours. The threat at KBTR and the New Orleans terminals, KNEW and KMSY, is non-zero, but not high enough to justify a mention in the forecast this far out. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 The main concern will be daily thunderstorm activity across the marine areas as a stalled front hangs around the coastal waters. Locally higher winds and waves will be expected near any thunderstorm. The front will push off more into the Gulf on Sunday and Monday, and offshore winds will continue behind it. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 88 68 88 / 0 10 0 20 BTR 72 91 71 90 / 0 20 10 30 ASD 69 89 70 89 / 10 20 10 30 MSY 77 90 77 89 / 10 20 10 40 GPT 70 89 71 88 / 10 20 10 30 PQL 69 88 69 88 / 10 20 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM....JZ AVIATION...RW MARINE...JZ