385
FXUS64 KLIX 090631
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
131 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
  each afternoon. Any storms will be very slow moving and may
  generate enough rain to cause localized flooding in poorly
  drained and low lying areas.

- Heat index values will climb to around 105 each day, but are
  currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Convection was a little more isolated to widely scattered
yesterday but that will likely change today as a weak tropical
wave impact`s the region. That wave at 6z was draped from the
central Gulf to the far western portions of the FL panhandle and
moving east. It will approach the coast later today and should
lead to better coverage of convection than we saw yesterday. In
fact we should see early morning convection begin to develop over
the coastal waters which may approach the coast around sunrise in
a few areas. This activity will push inland through the day and
start to slowly dissipate after sunset very typical for Summer.

Convection will continue to be on the higher end Monday as this
wave starts to stretch out WSW to ENE across the region. This
creates an area of deeper moisture draped over the area leading to
showers and thunderstorms on the scattered to possibly numerous
in coverage but after Monday we will likely begin to see
thunderstorm coverage start to taper off especially heading into
the latter portions of the forecast but in the short term
scattered storms are still in the mix. The reason for this is a
mid lvl ridge centered east of FL and north of the Bahamas will
start working east. This will be more of a dirty ridge and likely
not completely shut down rain chances late in the forecast period
but will knock the potential and coverage down a few notches. As
that ridge shifts west and starts to build into the area Tuesday
and Wednesday we will see increasing hghts and mid lvl temps which
will begin to suppress convection slightly and with less
convection and associated cloud cover we will begin to see temps
rise with many locations in the mid 90s by Wednesday. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Stacked high to the west and Bermuda high to the east will be our
extended focus. The Bermuda high to start the extended time frame
will keep precip numbers in the normal category for August, but this
will begin to slowly change. Looking at model solutions yesterday,
there were some questions of ridge extension to the east from the
stacked high over the SW CONUS. This looks like it will occur and
a bit different than was previously advertised, which was the
main inquiry. The TUTT low moving west this evening approaching
the Bahamas will eventually move through the gulf then into the
western gulf coast then start moving NW as the SW high gets
displaced and moves to the east. This begins to occur by mid week.
As the high moves east, our precip numbers will slowly lower
getting close to zero by the end of the week. The high basically
trades places with the TUTT low by Sat as the TUTT low will be
found over west TX and the high will be found over northern MS/AL.
This should all but alleviate precip chances and bring the
thermostat upward with a few locations over the NW or western
extent of the area getting uncomfortably close to that century
mark. The gulf coast of TX will find sea brz development moving
far inland while we will be stuck at the bottom side of the
mid/upper high which means if we are to get any cooling from
storms they would have to develop to our east and migrate westward
on the bottom side of the high. This may actually occur by next
weekend giving us higher precip numbers by Sunday or the first of
the week after, but that is way too far out to peel the layers
back at this point. /TE/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Convection has died off across the northern areas and all
terminals remain in VFR status and will remain through the early
morning hours. So far nothing is showing up on radar across the
coastal waters but there will likely be a few storms to fire
across the near shore waters between 10-13z and a few may be close
enough to impact a few coastal terminals. Most likely location
would be GPT but can`t completely rule out a rogue storm
developing over Lake Pontchartrain and possibly impacting MSY and
NEW early. Otherwise we are looking at similar conditions we have
seen the last 4-5 days with convection firing along the sea and
lake breeze late morning and pushing inland through the day. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

As high pressure remains in place and centered east of the area we
will continue to see winds around 5-10 kts varying between southerly
and easterly with seas of 1 to 2 feet in place across all of the
waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up each day in
the early morning hours before moving inland by the afternoon hours.
These storms will produce lightning strikes, heavy downpours, a few
waterspouts, and locally higher winds and waves. Overall, a very
typical pattern will be in place for early August. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB