Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
702 FXUS64 KLIX 080506 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - Areas of fog possible overnight in areas that received heavy rainfall Monday. - Isolated to scattered showers along coastal areas today. Dry/cooler conditions expected beyond that into next week. - Hazardous marine conditions return to the outer open waters today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 A few areas of fog possible by sunrise, but may not be as widespread as yesterday morning. A northern stream trough was moving through the Great Lakes, with ridging over the Rockies. During the evening, a frontal boundary extended from near Cleveland to Little Rock to Dallas-Fort Worth. North of that boundary, dew points fall off to 60 degrees or below, while to the south, dew points were in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Locally, the 00z LIX sounding from 750 mb was almost a carbon copy from the morning sounding. Below that point, there was some warming and perhaps a little drying, but there remained some isolated convection during Tuesday afternoon. The frontal boundary will only gradually move through the area over the next 24 to 36 hours, as there won`t even be a well defined wind shift. A shortwave near Memphis Thursday morning will be moving into the base of the trough off the East Coast by Thursday evening to be finally drive deeper dry air into the area by Thursday night. Any precipitation during the day today is likely to be extremely isolated, and areal coverage will probably be well less than 20 percent, with little or no precipitation expected on Thursday. High temperatures are likely to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today. Lower 90s would be very close to records in some locations. Overnight lows could fall into the 60s across the northern half of the area Thursday morning if the frontal boundary makes it that far south. Highs Thursday should be a little cooler than today, but it is a question of which wins out, cool air advection (some cooling) or subsidence (little change). Will hold on to the NBM solution for now. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Generally, upper ridging is expected to become anchored over Texas during the extended period, with troughing near the East Coast as shortwaves moving over the crest of the ridge move into the base of the trough. Over the weekend, the trough will help develop low pressure near the Florida East Coast and then move it up the Eastern Seaboard Sunday and Monday. Locally, the only impact this has is to continue funneling dry air into the area. Precipitable water values near or below the 25th percentile are likely to occur the entire period from late Thursday night through Tuesday. Dry weather is expected through this period. High temperatures are likely to be in the 80s through the holiday weekend. Overnight lows are expected in the 50s and lower 60s across the northern half of the area, and in the 60s across the southern half. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 All terminals VFR at forecast issuance time except KASD (IFR), and should remain so for the next few hours, at least. Still potential for low clouds/visibilities toward sunrise, but the threat may not be as great as it was Tuesday morning. Will have IFR or lower conditions for a few hours at all but the New Orleans terminals and KGPT. Expect improvement to MVFR by mid-morning, and VFR by noon. Will not mention SHRA/TSRA in the forecast for the afternoon hours at this time, as expected areal coverage, if it occurs at all, is too low to justify a mention that far out in the forecast. With a frontal boundary moving into the area overnight into Thursday morning, do not expect there to be a fog threat for the hours near sunrise Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 High pressure off the Atlantic Coast and low pressure over the southern Gulf will tighten the pressure gradient again over the next few days. This will be noticeable later today over the outer open waters, where Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will be in effect for northeasterly winds between 15 and 20 knots. Cold air advection with the frontal boundary moving into the waters tonight and Thursday will aid in producing an increase in wind speed by Thursday morning. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories are likely to be necessary across most or all of the waters by Thursday morning. Those conditions are likely to continue through at least Friday. Some improvement in wind/wave conditions could occur on Saturday over the protected waters, but perhaps not until Sunday over the outer waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 65 84 61 / 10 10 0 0 BTR 90 68 88 63 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 88 67 87 64 / 10 10 0 0 MSY 90 73 88 71 / 10 20 0 0 GPT 88 69 87 66 / 10 10 10 0 PQL 88 67 87 63 / 10 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW