164
FXUS64 KLIX 150518
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in
  the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index values
  climbing into the lower to mid 110s. An Excessive Heat Warning
  is in effect for today and a heat watch for Sunday. Into the new
  week at least Heat Advisories are anticipated. The impact of the
  afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than
  normal overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Heat will remain the issue for the next several days. There is a
breathing of the lower atmosphere each day, which is very common
this time of year. This breathing is simply a cyclical event each
day of higher dew pts coming in with the cbrz during the evening
as hot air rises and the cooler water temps move in to replace.
Then the next day, the heating of the low levels mixes things out
causing the dew pts to fall during the heat of the day only to
see this cbrz replace them with higher dew pts once again. This
scenario can be seen very well when looking at dew pts in any
model. This can also cause heat index values to not get to the
hottest numbers to cause the heat warning criteria. But, the
ambient heat will remain intense and some locations should even
see 100+F today and Sunday even into Monday. We will keep the heat
warning for high heat index values as most areas will at least be
close but coastal areas may see the highest of these values.

Eventhough precip numbers will be low to nothing for most areas,
there will be a few dots on radar that will show up during the
hottest part of the day as a cbrz will help initiate a few storms
each day through Tuesday. Without a lot of competition for heat
energy, any one storm cell could take full advantage of this to
become strong or even severe. This is also a very normal thing
throughout the summer months, but its always good to reitterate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The long term still continues to look hot with the upper ridge
stretched from the Desert Southwest all the way to the western
Atlantic Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will cover most of the
Gulf at that time.

A northern stream shortwave tries to break down the ridge sometime
around Friday of next week. However, there looks to be quite a bit
of difference regarding any cooling next weekend, with the GFS
operational solutions holding any modification of the hot air mass
to the west of the area, while the ECMWF family knocks temperatures
back to close to normal. Any threat of organized convection looks to
be extremely limited during the workweek next week. Precipitable
water values from the GFS would seem to have a relative maxima
around Tuesday or Wednesday, but drop off again for Thursday and
Friday. The most favored areas would again be along lake and sea
breeze boundaries, such as the Mississippi coastal counties and
lower portions of Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes.

Would not expect to see much day to day variation in high
temperatures, but if the soundings are showing trends reasonably,
there may be some variation in heat index values, similar to what
was seen this past afternoon when some dew points actually fell into
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period
with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms
will be possible mainly toward sunrise. Overall, winds should remain
mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside any storms.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-
     089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE