Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
944 FXUS64 KLIX 160524 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1124 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Above normal temperatures expected through the start of next week. - Some patchy dense fog could develop tonight, especially along river drainage basins. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 At the surface we will continue to see high pressure centered to the east of us dominate the pattern. This surface high pressure paired with our area sitting on the eastern side of an upper level ridge will keep conditions relatively dry in terms of precipitation. These dry conditions look to last through the short term period. Additionally, that upper level ridge will allow us to see warmer conditions, which we already saw a little of earlier Saturday. Each day is expected to see afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. The main story of the short term will continue to be the potential for fog development. Conditions tonight once again look favorable for some fog development, however it is looking to be more patchy than widespread. We look to see some high clouds move in gradually through the night which may somewhat limit our radiational cooling to an extent. Models are hitting areas north of Baton Rouge the most and expect the river basins to also see a better chance for this patchy dense fog. Regardless of this, with ongoing fires in the Atchafalaya basin and that lining up with the areas of the best fog probabilities, there remains a chance for localized super fog in these areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Into the long term period, our upper level ridge is mostly flattened out by a shortwave trough tracking across the Central Plains. Additionally, onshore flow starts to pick up towards mid week helping to increase our moisture across the area. Our warming trend looks to peak on Wednesday as we see high temperatures reach the mid 80s for a good chunk of the area. It is worth noting, Baton Rouge has a high temperatures record Wednesday of 86 set in 1903, our current forecasted high is 85. While there is still plenty of time for the forecast to change, the fact that our forecast is so close to record values shows how unseasonably warm we will be. Climate normal highs this time of year are in the low 70s, so we will be running a good 10 to even 15 degrees above that. Later in the period our next potential weather maker will move across the region. A trough looks to dig down through the desert southwest and slide up towards the Upper Midwest through late week. Given this is late in the period there are still quite a bur of uncertainties, but as of now we do see a ramp up in PoPs in the forecast with ~60% by Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Prevailing VFR at all terminals and this holds through the rest of today. We may see similar conditions to last night, which would promote fog development, though possibly less coverage. Likely more of a patchy dense situation rather than widespread. Timing would be a couple hours before sunrise until just after sunrise. Given this patchy fog, IFR to LIFR conditions at some terminals will be possible due to visibility. After sunrise the fog will burn off and all terminals return to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Surface high pressure will generally remain centered over the Southeast US through much of the forecast period. This will allow for a continuation of onshore flow. Overall, the flow should remain light with favorable winds and seas through the weekend and into the start of next week. Progressing into late next week, a cold front moving through will bring the potential for hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 56 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 58 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 55 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 61 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 58 78 58 76 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 55 79 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...HL MARINE...HL