Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
422 FXUS64 KLIX 061029 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 529 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 - A weak tropical wave will continue to bring plenty of showers and a few storms to the area this weekend. As the wave moves west, winds and rain chances will lower as we move into the new week. - As easterly to east-southeasterly winds ease, it will allow water levels to ease as well causing coastal flood advisories to drop. Winds will fall to around 10 to 15 knots which will keep tide levels abnormally high today. More easing of these tide levels is expected Sunday into the new work week. - Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widespread light to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12 corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing locally heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 As occurs with all easterly waves, this one will and is moving west this morning, but taking its time. As it moves west, the high over the Atlantic is also weakening its grip over the northern gulf by allowing the ridged pressure field to drop by 2mb today. This will cause the horizontal pressure field to relax. These two have been interacting with each other to produce the moderate winds over the area and stream a good bit of tropical moisture northward. As the gradient weakens, the winds will begin to weaken, but they won`t go calm so the rain will slowly lower in chances through Sunday. Then we should finally see some relative "dry" time. It`s in quotes because, it won`t be completely dry for everyone as a normal diurnal setup will keep some areas wet during the heat of the day. But at this point, we could use precip numbers in the 30% range. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Tuesday night through Thursday, high pressure builds over the area. Conditions will be quite a bit drier than the weekend, but not completely. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon peak daytime heating hours each day. These storms will mainly have the risk of lightning where they occur. High temperatures will be warm with highs in the low 90s and heat index values approaching 100 degrees during the week, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. So, generally expect lower rain chances through the end of the week with warm temperatures. Friday into the weekend, there are a few model discrepancies given it is so far out, but generally another Gulf moisture plume is expected to approach the area next Friday and afterward. This will likely enhance rain chances for the area, especially during peak daytime heating hours. And rain chances could definitely change as the week progresses, depending on where the Gulf moisture goes. We will keep monitoring for changes. MSW && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 All cigs remain MVFR to VFR this morning and should remain within in those levels the rest of today. Streamers of RA will move into the area today and could cause these cigs and vis to temporarily fall into IFR criteria. This will be especially true for moderate to heavy sh/ts with some of these training over a few terminals possible today. Intensity of rainfall will be diurnally driven with lighter amounts again tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Winds will begin to relax overnight tonight allowing for improving conditions by Saturday morning allwing headlines to drop across all waters. Overall, winds will still be 10 to 15 knots to start the new workweek lasting through the end of the forecast cycle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with the higher coverage early in the forecast period. Winds and seas will locally be high in and near convection. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE