297
FXUS64 KLIX 032340
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
640 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Front is stalling across the immediate coast of Louisiana. Tropical
  moisture surges back into the region toward the weekend with
  localized flooding possible in the more vulnerable areas.

- Winds of 20 to 30 knots across all waters will persist through
  Friday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through the
  remainder of the workweek.

- Strong easterly winds and spring tides are expected to lead to
  minor coastal flooding for portions of coastal MS and east
  facing shores of SELA east of the MS River. A Coastal Flood
  Advisory is in effect through Thursday and may need to be
  extended through Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The weak cold front is still positioned along the LA Coastline
this afternoon. Along the front, scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed, mainly over southeast Louisiana.
Through the first day or two in the short term this will generally
be the rule with showers and storms struggling a bit to form over
the northeastern half of the CWFA closer to the H5 ridge over the
Sequatchie/Tennessee River Valley and a bit drier airmass over
these areas. However, since the front is stalling over our region,
the southwest portion of the CWFA has a completely different
story with continued periods of showers and storms where moisture
is deeper and the surface trigger (the front) still remains.

Surface pressure gradient will tighten a good bit as surface high
pressure develops over the southern Appalachians and lower
pressures reside in the Gulf. Surface winds, especially closer to
the Gulf will become gusty with a few gusts approaching 30 knots
at times Thursday afternoon. With the low level flow and fetch
increasing, water will begin to pile up on eastern facing shores.
Continued the Coastal Flood Advisory with times of high tide most
likely to experience coastal flood issues. This will likely
persist through Friday as the moderate fetch persists.

As mentioned there are lower pressures over the Gulf with an
inverted surface trough developing over the central Gulf waters
later this week. As this occurs, the surface front will become
rather diffuse and weak. The flow begins to shift to a stronger
onshore flow allowing tropical moisture to surge into the region.
Because of this surge as well as more low level convergence, POPs
are trending higher later into the week and especially into
Friday and Saturday. At this juncture, it looks like convection
will be periodic. Because there will be a few breaks, QPF of 1-2"
on average can be anticipated across the board. However, it`s
never that easy on the Gulf Coast. Locally higher amounts will be
possible, especially if some lucky folks catch multiple rounds.
So, unfortunately it goes without saying that localized hydro
concerns will be likely in those more vulnerable locations. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Surface flow begins to decrease just a bit going into Sunday as
pressure gradient is reduced. However, the southerly onshore flow
will likely persist...just again weaker. Aloft, there is an H5
ridge developing albeit modest in the northern Gulf late Monday
and into Tuesday. This will have a slight impact on POPs (lower
POPs), but only in terms of lower coverage of diurnally driven
convection during the afternoon/peak heating hours early to mid
week next week. As one would expect with slightly lower POPs and
higher heights, temperatures will again move closer to the lower
90s going into the new workweek. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings across the forecast terminals this
afternoon. Still some scattered SHRA and a few TSRA, but most of
these should die out over the next few hours with the loss of
heating. Will hold onto TEMPO TSRA for a bit at KHUM. Overnight,
should primarily be MVFR ceilings at most terminals, and if not
overnight, then definitely tomorrow morning before convection
develops. Will carry PROB30 at most (but not all) terminals for
the afternoon hours on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Winds and seas will be increasing and remain hazardous through the
remainder of the workweek. Small Craft Advisories remain in place
for local waters through at least Friday. Going into this weekend
some improvement takes place, but winds and seas will remain
moderate. Outside of the gusty winds anticipated through the
workweek, locally higher winds and seas will be possible in or
around convection that develops. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078-
     091.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     LAZ093-095-097.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ529-531-532-
     534>536-554-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ533-541-543-
     551-553-570-572.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ531-532-
     534>536-554-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ541-543-551-
     553-570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF