Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
436 FXUS64 KLIX 011753 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 - Rain chances increase today and Tuesday. - Unless convection helps to keep temps in check we should see highs in the lower 90s with heat indices of 100 to 105 both days. - Temperatures return to seasonable possibly even slightly below normal for a few days beginning Wednesday behind a weak backdoor cold front Tuesday night. Additionally, Small Craft Advisories are possible for the Gulf waters mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 A boundary over the I10/12 corridor continues to generate a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. This will likely persist especially as boundaries interact with other mesoscale boundaries into this evening. Another area of convection has been pinged on the CAMs over southwest Mississippi this evening we will need to watch as well. This feature along with the current MCS over the Tennessee Valley or at least the remains will focus somewhere closer to our region on Tuesday. Models show a bit more widespread convection on Tuesday with multiple boundaries and at least some upper level support. PWATS are ranging from 1.8-2.0" so efficient rainfall producers may have localized higher rainfall rates leading to urbanized flooding issues if convection lingers over more vulnerable areas. DCAPE values are slightly higher on Tuesday as well with upper level dry air trying to sneak into the column, but should remain modest so outside of a brief wind gusts as convection collapses, nothing widespread in terms of severe weather is anticipated. Going into midweek eyes will focus on a backdoor cold front that sneaks into the region and eventually stalls over the northern Gulf. This feature will provide a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity at least ahead of the the feature west of the I55 corridor. The MS Gulf Coast and the eastern half of the region will likely see humidity values a bit lower on the opposite side of the front. In fact, Thursday morning may be a bit more comfortable over the eastern half of the CWFA with temperatures dropping into the middle 60s overnight. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 Going into the long term the front will remain over the central Gulf coast and will continue to provide a focus for at least diurnally driven convection. Weak upper level ridging will drop southward from the Tennessee River Valley and eventually settle across the region. It appears to be rather weak. A slight suppression in diurnally driven convection going into the weekend will be possible, but isolated to scattered activity will remain possible. With a bit lower rain chances and higher heights settling, temperatures will warm back into the upper 80s across the region to round out the long term period. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 VFR/MVFR conditions this afternoon can be expected. However, there will be a chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms with brief locally lower reductions in and around convection. Locally gusty and erratic winds too similarly around convection. Later tonight, rain chances decrease a couple hours after sunset, however, MVFR CIGs and VIS will be possible especially inland where rain does occur this afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 A broad area of high pressure will continue to keep conditions over the waters relatively benign for a couple more days. Winds will be light at 10 knots or less and seas will remain below 2 feet. The seabreeze cycle will lead to some variability in wind direction near the coast, and a few thunderstorms could fire up in relation to this seabreeze/landbreeze cycle. Any storms will be short-lived and will produce locally higher winds, seas as well as the potential for cloud-to-water lightning. A weak backdoor cold front is still expected to slip into the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pressure gradient increases, which will allow Gulf waters to experience an increase in winds. Small Craft Advisories will be possible going into late week. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF