745
FXUS64 KLIX 141114
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
614 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Scattered convection yesterday developed rather quickly and this
definitely helped to keep the oppressive conditions at bay for
much of the area. Highs still climbed into the lower to mid 90s
for portions of the area however many locations struggled to reach
90s thanks to convection and cloud cover. This may be an issue
again today but convection could hold off just a little longer.

As for today and tomorrow, these 2 days could end up being the
quietest of the week however impact free, yeah not so fast. The mid
lvl ridge sits directly over us but even with that yesterday it
mattered little with scattered convection likely in part to the
ridge not quite being strong enough and abundant moisture in place
with PWs over 2". Well, that will be quite similar today as this
ridge is not the likes of our August and early September death
ridges that put the brakes on convection and deliver HOT temps this
is more of a dirty ridge with PWs still around 2" and H5 temps
around -7C. This is just not going to be enough to stop storms from
developing today and may not be enough to keep storms from
developing Tuesday as well. The only thing slightly different for
Tuesday is LL temps will be a touch warmer and this may lead to
convection could taking a little longer to develop on Tuesday and
that could allow the region to heat up just a touch more for a
slightly larger area under the risk of oppressive conditions and the
need for a Heat Advisory. As for today a Heat Advisory is in effect
along and between the 10/12 corridors but that could be a stretch.
Guidance came in cooler with highs for today and with as much as we
have been able to mix dropping the dewpoint just enough while then
combining with convection to cool things it may be a struggle to get
more than just a few points to hit heat advisory criteria. No
changes will be made to the going advisory but there is a chance we
will need another one for Tuesday. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The extended portion of the forecast is definitely where many
peoples eyes are shifting too. NHC still has a low chance of a
tropical cyclone developing across the north-central and
northeastern Gulf for the second half of the work week. Models and
ensembles are all over however there is a general consensus on at
least a very weak sfc low moving across the northern Gulf Wednesday
through Friday. At this time not confident enough to make any
significant changes from the NBM outside of tweaking winds up a
notch in the coastal waters and bumping PoPs up for Thursday night
as the NBM is too fixated on keeping convection contained to marine
areas overnight and if there is a weak tropical like system the
convection will be focused more towards the center of the system
which could very well be over land by then.

Wednesday is the most difficult day from a timing standpoint. Our
Gulf system which will be moving west will be in the eastern Gulf to
start the day. The surge of moisture could start to push in by
Wednesday afternoon or could hold out till Wednesday evening. Our
ridge that was over the region Monday and Tuesday is continuing to
slide north and east but will nose around the Gulf system and
towards the northwestern Gulf coast. If the deeper moisture holds
off the Wednesday could be another rather warm day like Tuesday and
if that is the case a heat advisory may be needed for western
portions of the CWA.

Thursday and Friday will be dominated by our Gulf system and there
is a possibility that we could be dealing with the remnants of this
system for even longer. Regardless of tropical development the
biggest impact from this system looks to be rainfall and if things
line up in a bad way, very heavy rain will be a problem. Very rich
tropical moisture will accompany this system with PWs well above 2".
Combine that with the forcing and instability of what appears to be
a slow moving system that may even hang up and not be quick to get
out of here and the recipe starts to come together for a concerning
flood scenario. There is a possibility that it could even be trapped
under the ridge sitting over the regiont through the weekend. If
that actually happens then the rainfall amounts that are currently
in the forecast will be woefully underdone and some areas will
likely be dealing with very significant rainfall impacts. Even if
nothing changes over the next few days there is a good chance that
flood watches will be issued for Thursday and Friday, anything
beyond that is too much of a guess at this time. WPC is already
highlighting a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for those days as
well. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A bit less convective coverage is expected for today. PROB30
wording is in place at most of the terminals, and the highest
probabilities for thunderstorm development are at MSY, NEW, HUM,
HDC, and ASD due to lakebreeze and seabreeze boundary
interactions. If a storm impacts a terminal, a brief period of
reduced visibilities, lightning, and gusty winds can be expected.
Any impacts should generally be between 30 minutes to an hour as
storms quickly pulse up and then die off. Outside of the
thunderstorm activity, prevailing VFR conditions will be the rule
at all of the terminals. PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Slightly less convective coverage is expected for today, but the
the convective threat will be high enough at all of the terminals
to include at least PROB30 wording generally between 18z and 00z
this afternoon. The two terminals with the highest threat for
thunderstorms will be MSY and HUM as seabreeze and lakebreeze
boundary interactions will help to fuel a bit more convective
activity near these terminals. A short TEMPO group of around 2
hours is in place around 18z to 20z at these terminals to reflect
the higher risk of storms and some IFR visibility impacts. Outside
of the thunderstorm activity, prevailing VFR conditions will be
the rule at all of the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Generally benign conditions continue over the coastal
waters at least for the next few days but conditions could become a
little more hazardous for the middle and back half of the work week.
High pressure will slide west across the Gulf through Tuesday
leading to winds remaining light but slowly veering around from
southwesterly to northwesterly by Tuesday afternoon. At the same
time a sfc trough will slide across FL and into the eastern Gulf
Tuesday this wave will continue to trek west with a sfc low likely
developing as it moves towards the north-central Gulf coast. NHC
still only has it at a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone but
whether it develops or not it will bring hazardous winds and seas to
the coastal waters Thursday and Friday along with the possibility of
minor coastal flooding. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  73  95  73 /  20  20  10  10
BTR  92  75  95  76 /  20  10  10   0
ASD  92  73  95  75 /  30  20  10  10
MSY  92  78  95  79 /  30  20  10  10
GPT  92  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  20
PQL  94  74  96  74 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ046>048-056>060-064-065-070-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...CAB