Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
820 FXUS65 KLKN 200905 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 205 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Pleasant conditions across the forecast area today * Rain showers and thunderstorms return to central and eastern Nevada Monday and Tuesday * Fair weather returns mid week though breezes will become more prevalent by the end of the week && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fair weather persists thru today under weak mid and upper level flow across the great Basin. Skies will be mostly sunny though high level clouds begin to move in from the southwest. An upper level low off the coast of SoCal will continue to advance east and begin to move inland tonight. The low will enter southern Nevada Monday advecting sufficient moisture into the region to produce rain showers and thunderstorms. Better agreement for moisture availability is still noted within the most recent numerical model solutions. PWATs of 0.5-0.7 inches will push to the northeast and into the forecast are under the south- southwesterly flow circulating around the low. Showers and thunderstorms move into central Nevada Monday with activity moving in from the southwest. Activity spreads into eastern Nevada and Elko County Monday night and Tuesday. The best opportunity for accumulating rainfall will be across central Nevada and specifically White Pine County. ECMWF guidance has rainfall accumulations of 0.1-0.2 inches across White Pine County. The system will exit the area on Wednesday riding the flow of its parent trof centered off the western Canadian coast. A transition to southwesterly flow will be present over the western U.S. the remainder of the week. This will produce fair weather across the Great Basin beginning Wednesday and thru the rest of the work week, leading to a gradual warming trend thru Friday. Afternoon high temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile a robust upper level trof will deepen and progress east into the western U.S. from the Gulf of Alaska the latter portion of the week. Weather looks to remain dry at this time though breezes will become more prevalent by Friday and Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in a quiet forecast through today. Moderate confidence exists in shower and thunderstorm activity on Monday and Tuesday. Again opted for a blend of various model guidance to produce a more accurate PoP and weather forecast thru the period. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will be in place at all terminals thru Sunday night. Winds will be light. && .FIRE WEATHER...Fair weather will be in place today with no significant fire weather concerns. A Pacific low is still on track to move thru southern and central Nevada Monday and Tuesday. This will spread rain showers and thunderstorms into central Nevada from the southwest beginning Monday with activity moving into eastern Nevada Monday night and Tuesday. Zones 426, 427, 425, 469, and 470 will see the bulk of the activity though the southern halves of zones 424 and 438 can also expect to observe at least isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Wetting rains will be possible with the best opportunity in and near zone 425. Weather will again become fair mid week though breezes will become prevalent by the end of the week as a upper level Pacific trof begins to move into the western U.S. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92 FIRE WEATHER...92