256
FXUS65 KLKN 261021
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
321 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing showers and thunderstorms across central
and northeastern Nevada this afternoon. Northwestern Nevada is
expected to have very dry conditions along with increasing west-
southwest winds in the afternoon which will promote critical fire
weather conditions. Slightly cooler temperatures expected to make
its way back on Thursday and Friday, followed by a returning hot
temperatures over the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Thursday

Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected to continue early this
morning and dissipate before the next wave of isolated
thunderstorms form this afternoon in central and northeastern
Nevada, however northwestern Nevada is expected to remain dry.
Temperatures are expected to still reach into the 90s across the
state with overnight lows falling into the 50s and 60s, however
there is still a continuing heat risk for West Wendover as high
temperatures reach into the low 90s, but the overnight lows from
the surounding lower elevations are expected to remain into the
70s. A low pressure front from the northwest is expected to move
into northwestern Nevada by the afternoon. The oncoming front will
increase wind speeds from west-southwest upwards of 20+ across
northwestern Nevada.

Wednesday night, chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected to continue across eastern portion of N. Nye County
and White Pine County, as the system heads eastwards towards Utah
and drier conditions move in from the west.

Thursday, dry weather condition return over the silver state but
with slightly cooler temperatures from the oncoming low pressure
front from the northwest. High temperatures are expected to be in
the 80s to low 90s for central Nevada and in the 70s for northern
Nevada. However, West Wendover is still expected to be hot with
high temperatures in the 90s, but some relief is expected
overnight Thursday as low temperatures are expected to drop back
into the 60s. Afternoon westerly winds expected to increase at
15-20 mph with the stronger winds more towards northeastern
Nevada.


.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

Lingering light northerly flow will keep temperatures in check
across northern Nevada Friday with highs in the upper 70s to 80s
with primarily 80s and lower 90s south of US-50. Ridge axis shifts
eastward Saturday allowing stronger southwest flow to develop
during the day across the area. Temperatures will also respond
upward with highs in the 90s returning to northern Nevada valleys
and lows only lowering into the upper 50s for Friday night.

A broad trough will pass through the northern Rockies region
Sunday bringing a few showers and thunderstorms and cooler
temperatures to far northern Nevada Sunday afternoon. Minimal
rainfall is expected. Cooler temperatures linger across northern
Nevada into Monday under a northwest flow with dry conditions
setting up for next week under dry southwest flow with monsoon
moisture remaining in Utah. Highs will generally range in the 80s
to low 90s with lows in the 40s and 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through mid-morning. Mid
to upper-level moisture will move into central and northeastern
Nevada Wednesday afternoon, allowing for another round of
widespread convection. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible across KELY, KEKO, and KTPH. Gusty
outflow winds and lightning will be the primary threats starting
after 18Z. Breezy winds from the SW-W expected to affect all TAF
sites during the afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts
to 20-30 knots. BLDU is possible starting around 21Z at KWMC given
the strong winds. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid to
late evening hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate in the morning but increase again in the afternoon for
central and northeastern Nevada. RH values will be slightly higher
this time, however is expected to start out dry, but mix a little
faster as RH values are at 20-30%. Zone 425 and 470 are expected
to have the highest chances (between 40-50%) in the afternoon
while zone 427 426 and eastern half of 469 have chances between
25-40%. Chances heading westward drop off to below 17% quickly for
the remaining zones. Zone 437 is expected to be in critical fire
weather condition as RH values drop below 15% along with gusty
west- southwest winds in the afternoon to evening hours. A cold
front and associated upper-level disturbance will push into the
state across northern Nevada, lowering temperatures, however drier
air moves in behind, lowering humidity as well as most of the
moisture gets pushed out of the region Thursday. Dry conditions
and warmer temperatures back into the 90s return Friday and
Saturday with another upper-level disturbance acting to increase
winds across the state along and chances of returning
showers/thunderstorms along the Idaho/Nevada border on Sunday.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening Humboldt County-Quinn.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening Southeastern Elko
County.

&&

$$

97/93/90/97