426
FXUS65 KLKN 180848
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
148 AM PDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low chance for isolated thunderstorms are possible for eastern
  Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Warming trend through Thursday

* Chances for monsoon storms return Friday afternoon

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level ridge over the four corners will continue to meander
around the desert southwest, while expanding its over all
footprint in the upper level flow. One lobe will push out over the
southern plains while another will push out over southern
California, this lobe will generate height rises over central
Nevada. This will bring a minimum for daily shower chances at 10%
to 20% through Thursday. By Friday a upper trough will dig south
over the northern west coast, this trough while having no impact
on Nevada, will flatten the western part of the ridge, and push
the ridge itself east over New Mexico. Which will generate a
return to southerly upper level flow allowing for another batch of
monsoon moisture to be pulled north into Nevada. Models show this
flow pattern persisting well into the following week giving
Nevada a daily 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening hours starting
Friday afternoon and lasting through at least Wednesday of next
week if not longer as both the GFS and ECMWF suggest. Temperatures
will be on a warming trend through Thursday afternoon as high
pressure builds across Nevada. This will return daytime highs back
into the low 90s to triple digits for many with heat headlines
possible for SE Elko county as overnight lows look to remain in
the mid 70s for west Wendover. Elsewhere lows look to drop into
the low 60s allowing for some recovery from daytime heat. After
Friday the surge of moisture and the displacement of the ridge
will allow highs to cool back into the low 80s to low 90s through
Tuesday of next week. Winds will be breezy in the afternoons with
W to SW winds of 10 to 20 MPH with occasional gusts up to 30 MPH
possible. For the weekend and into the new week winds shift more
to the S SW but speeds during the afternoons look to be similar.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence for chances of warming temperatures
through Friday afternoon, with heat headlines possible for SE Elko
county.

There moderate confidence for a 105 to 20% chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms for eastern Nevada through Thursday
afternoon.

There is moderate confidence for the return of southerly flow and
monsoonal moisture beginning Friday afternoon, bringing a daily
20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for Nevada.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through
Tuesday evening. Winds will be out of the west to southwest at 5KT
to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. There is a
low 10% to 20% chance for isolated VCTS for KELY and KENV Tuesday
afternoon, but confidence is too low to mention in TAFs at this
time.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather concerns possible through Thursday
afternoon as high pressure builds in across Nevada bringing breezy
afternoon winds, warming temperatures and drier conditions. There
is a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated thunderstorms mainly for
eastern NV. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 50
MPH, and ground lighting strikes. Rainfall, if any will be brief,
with amounts up to 0.05 possible. Friday afternoon the ridge will
shift east allowing for southerly flow to return monsoonal
moisture to the region with cooling temperatures and daily 20% to
50% chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98