Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
237 FXUS65 KLKN 030829 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV Issued by National Weather Service Boise ID 129 AM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025 * Monsoonal moisture continues to build in from the south through the week. * Dry will give way to wet thunderstorms as areal coverage also increases through Saturday. * Dry conditions return Sunday as upper flow sifts to the WSW bringing in drier air. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Southerly flow between an HPC to the east and a low pressure system to the west-southwest helps to be the catalyst for increased moisture transport. As the week wears on increased moisture (PWs ranging 0.8-0.9 inches) is expected to filter northward into central and eventually northern NV. A series of shortwaves traversing the flow of a longwave parent trough to the northwest will ride up the west coast dragging their trough axes across the Silver State. With moisture in place vorticity and increased frontogenesis over the central and east-central NV will help initiate convection each day from Wednesday through Saturday. Storms will develop over northern Nye and White Pine counties initially before areal coverage spreads north into Lander, Eureka, and eventually Humboldt and Elko counties. On Wednesday a mixed bag of convection is anticipated with wetter storms to the south and drier air creating more dry convection over Elko County. Thursday initiation will focus on White Pine County where the best frontogenesis in the axis of a passing shortwave can be found. Activity will spread north similar to the setup on Wednesday. Friday currently looks to be the wettest day of the period with widespread coverage of wetting showers and thunderstorms. WPC holds a marginal risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance across most of the CWA Thursday, all of the CWA Friday, and eastern NV on Saturday. As flow veers to the west-southwest Saturday evening and Sunday, the area will get a reprieve from wet weather as moisture availability shifts to the east. The parent trough responsible for dragging the short waves across the Great Basin will begin its push eastward placing its LPC over the Washington coast line Monday. The trough is slow to migrate across the Rockies, however, as the trough axis associated with the LPC doesnt push into the Great Basin until Wednesday when precipitation chances increase once again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Plan was to tinker with dry convective activity as NBM`s struggle with placing correct convection over the correct locations at the correct times continues. Due to technical issues grid edits were unable to happen. Will tweak the WED AM FWF to ensure fire artners receive correct and accurate forecast. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast period through Wednesday evening. Beginning as early as midday Wednesday showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for KELY becoming more widespread at all terminals by Wednesday afternoon. In and around shower and thunderstorm activity intermittent periods of MVFR and IFR conditions are possible. Gusty winds from thunderstorms may create low VIS due to blowing dust leading to temporary MVFR/IFR conditions Wednesday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... ncreasing moisture across the region Wednesday will create dry becoming wet thunderstorm activity from south to north across central and northern NV. Thunderstorms will initiate over fire weather zones 426 and 427 as early as midday Wednesday. Areal coverage of thunderstorm activity will spread north through the afternoon into fire weather zones 424, 425, 437, 438, and 469. Drier air over northeastern NV will keep storms that do develop over northeastern NV more dry than wet (zones 438, 469). Better moisture over central NV will create more wetting thunderstorm activity for zones 425, 426, 427, and eventually 424 and 437 later in the day. Thursday thunderstorm activity will initiate over fire zones 425, 426, and 427 by early afternoon before spreading northward into 424, 438, 469, and 470. A similar setup is expected with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity over northern fire zones and more wetting storm activity over 425, 426, and 427. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99