Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
529 FXUS65 KLKN 161136 CCA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Elko NV 436 AM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 AM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 * Isolated dry thunderstorms expected in parts of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening * An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms anticipated in most of Northern and Central Nevada Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening * Isolated to scattered wet thunderstorms expected in Eastern Nevada Friday afternoon into Friday evening && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 1236 AM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will extend northwestward across Northern Nevada today. There should be enough lift and atmospheric instability for isolated dry thunderstorm development this afternoon in parts of Northern and Central Nevada. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 55 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. An upper-level area of low pressure near the Baja Peninsula will begin to move northward Thursday. This should pull atmospheric moisture northward into the Silver State. As a result, isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening should be a mix of wet and dry storms. The aforementioned cyclone aloft should be centered over Southern California Friday. Isolated to scattered, primarily wet, thunderstorms are expected in Eastern Nevada Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Here are probabilities of thunderstorms for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Friday, July 18th, 2025: Lund - 34% Ely - 33% Great Basin National Park - 32% Eureka - 27% Currie - 25% Jackpot - 22% Ruby Lake - 21% West Wendover - 21% Tonopah - 20% Wells - 18% The upper-level area of low pressure should open up into a trough of low pressure Saturday, before progressing eastward into the Desert Southwest Sunday. It looks as if Saturday will be the last day for potential thunderstorm formation in the service area. Broad, cyclonic flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest early next week. High temperatures each afternoon Saturday through next Wednesday will be near normal for this time of year. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. High forecast confidence in an isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms in the majority of Northern and Central Nevada Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. High forecast confidence regarding isolated to scattered wet thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Expanded the area of dry thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, otherwise no deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase out of the S-SW with gusts up to 25 kts at KELY and KTPH. Increasing moisture combined with weak instability will bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms across portions of northern and central Nevada Wednesday afternoon and evening, including KELY and KENV. CIGs will range from FL100 to FL150. Variable winds with gusts up to 35 kts are possible due to downdrafts and strong outflow winds from nearby storms. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid-evening hours, with dry and mild conditions at all terminals tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated in portions of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms may be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 55 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lighting strikes. An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected in the majority of Northern and Central Nevada Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Isolated to scattered wet thunderstorms are anticipated in Eastern Nevada Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Isolated wet thunderstorms are expected in portions of Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Dry weather should return to the Silver State Sunday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...87