Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
859 FXUS65 KLKN 150934 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 234 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 219 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 * Winter Storm Warning for the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range * Periods of precipitation throughout Northern and Central Nevada through tonight * Light snow showers on passes and summits along Highway 50 through this morning * Warming trend this weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 219 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 No major changes have been made to the current forecast. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of low pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will move onshore into Central California this afternoon. This cyclone aloft will progress northeastward across the Silver State tonight through Wednesday night. Precipitation ahead of this atmospheric disturbance will spread northward through Central Nevada this afternoon. Periods of precipitation are expected throughout Northern and Central Nevada tonight through Wednesday night. Snow levels will start at around 7,000 feet this afternoon, before dropping to about 6,000 feet tonight. Snow will be heavy at times in the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range. As a result, a Winter Storm Warning is in effect. Light snow is anticipated on passes and summits along Highway 50 tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow amounts will generally be an inch or less. Closer to the valley floor, rain amounts should vary from one quarter of an inch to one half of an inch. Here are probabilities of rain amounts of one quarter of an inch or more for locations in Northern and Central Nevada tonight through Wednesday night: Wells - 80% Ely - 75% Jackpot - 74% Eureka - 70% Spring Creek - 69% Tonopah - 69% Austin - 62% Carlin - 59% Elko - 56% Winnemucca - 52% A ridge of high pressure will build eastward across the Silver State Thursday and Friday. A ridge of high pressure will move eastward across the Western United States Saturday. A trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will approach Northern Nevada Sunday. A cold front should move through Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night, leading to much cooler weather Monday. Maximum temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Monday afternoon will be around fifteen degrees cooler than Sunday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in the Winter Storm Warning for the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range. High forecast confidence in periods of precipitation throughout Northern and Central Nevada tonight through Wednesday night. Moderate forecast confidence in light snow on passes and summits along Highway 50 tonight and Wednesday morning. Moderate forecast confidence regarding a warming trend this weekend. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... Look for continued -SHRA across all terminals today as an upper level low pressure system migrates east. Though VFR conditions will be the most prevalent flight category, the light rain showers will produce temporary MVFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. This possibility is not great enough to include in the terminal forecasts at this time. AMD NOT SKED for KTPH due to missing observations. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather issues are being noted at this time. A storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada through tonight, resulting in periods of precipitation. Snow levels will be about 6,000 feet this morning. A warming trend is expected this weekend, before much cooler weather Monday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday NVZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...87 FIRE WEATHER...87