Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
426 FXUS65 KLKN 011947 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1247 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 134 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 * Dry today with cumulus buildups and virga * Thunderstorms return Tuesday, primarily across central Nevada, and persist thru the end of the week with areal coverage becoming more widespread && .UPDATE... Issued at 1247 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The current forecast remains on track at this time. No updates are needed. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cumulus buildups and virga will be present this afternoon, and atmospheric moisture content looks to be borderline for dry thunderstorms. 5% to 10% chance for thunderstorms, primarily over the high terrain, along with lightning strike or two. That said, not enough confidence to include thunderstorms in the forecast, but it is worth noting a low chance here. Higher confidence that diurnally driven thunderstorms will return to central Nevada beginning Tuesday as an upper level perturbation helps advect moisture north and into the forecast area. Storms look to be a mix of wet and dry and will carry into the evening before dissipating and transitioning to light showers Tuesday night. Activity will be focused across central and western Nevada. Afternoon thunderstorms continue across the forecast area the remainder of the week, though there is increasing uncertainty amongst the progs pertaining to atmospheric moisture content. Some progs are indicating moisture content sufficient enough to produce widespread wetting rains across most of the forecast area by Friday, the exclusion being in and near Humboldt County. Given the disparity, will hedge toward a drier solution for the time being with mostly dry thunderstorms forecast. Main hazards with thunderstorms will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow winds with gusts 45 mph or more, cloud to ground lightning, and potentially small hail. Otherwise prevailing winds will be generally light. Daytime high temperatures will be in the low 80s to low 90s this afternoon with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures hold in this general range Tuesday, cooling a few degrees for the latter half of the week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Bit of uncertainty this afternoon with regard to dry thunderstorm chances as outlined previously. Moderate amount of uncertainty carries thru the week with regard to thunderstorms and rainfall totals across the forecast area. Though, highly confident that the bulk of the activity will occur across central Nevada. NBM forecast maintained with modest edits. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds expected at all sites except KTPH through the next 24 hours. Daytime gusts up to 20KT expected at KTPH. && .FIRE WEATHER...Borderline atmospheric moisture present across the Great Basin today for dry thunderstorms. Expecting afternoon cumulus buildups and virga across most of the forecast area, but anticipating only a 5%-10% chance of dry thunderstorms, including a lightning strike or two. Any storms that do form will be relegated to the high terrain. With atmospheric moisture content borderline for storms as noted, have opted to refrain from including dry thunder in the forecast, but it is worth noting the low chance here. Higher confidence that diurnally driven thunderstorms will return in earnest to central Nevada beginning Tuesday as an upper level perturbation helps advect moisture north and into the forecast area. Thunderstorms and showers will be a mix of wet and dry. Given adequate dynamic forcing associated with the perturbation, thunderstorms will carry into the evening hours, gradually dissipating into light showers. Activity looks to be primarily situated across central and western Nevada, and locations in and near FWZ 470 are forecast to remain dry Tuesday and Tuesday night. Diurnally driven convection persists thru the latter half of the week. Though there is increasing uncertainty amongst the progs pertaining to atmospheric moisture content. Will continue to favor mostly dry storm modes for the time being, though some progs are indicating atmospheric moisture content sufficient enough to produce widespread wetting rains across most of the forecast area by Friday, the exclusion being in and near FWZ 437. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...92