Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
807 FXUS65 KLKN 150747 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1247 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025 * Elevated fire weather conditions in parts of Northern and Central Nevada Monday * Dry weather will persist today through at least Friday * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values today through at least Friday * Moderate heat risk in the valleys of Southern Elko and White Pine Counties Thursday && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1247 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will be centered over the Desert Southwest today and tonight. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon will be seven to nine degrees above normal for this time of year. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 90 degrees or higher for locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Sunday, June 15th, 2025: West Wendover - 98% Eureka - 95% Tonopah - 95% Montello - 90% Winnemucca - 85% Ely - 85% Elko - 70% Battle Mountain - 60% Carlin - 60% McGill - 55% An Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will make landfall over Northern California Monday. This trough of low pressure will progress eastward across Northern Nevada Monday night. Strong, gusty southwest to west winds near 30 mph are expected Monday afternoon into Monday evening in White Pine, Southern Eureka, and Northern Nye Counties ahead of this trough of low pressure. Atmospheric moisture associated with this trough of low pressure will be very limited, so no precipitation is anticipated. Zonal flow across NV on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s. High pressure builds up from the south on Wednesday with afternoon temperatures rising by another 5 to 8 degrees, with upper 80s to mid 90s in most valley locations. An upper level low off the British Columbia coastline begins to drift southward on Thursday, with the flow aloft across Nevada becoming southwesterly. A couple more degrees of warming Thursday afternoon with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s which will be around 15 degrees above normal. Winds aloft increase on Thursday as the Pac NW low approaches NV. Not expecting winds to reach advisory levels on Thursday, however sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts of 20 to 35 mph are looking more likely over much of the region, with the highest winds across White Pine County. Friday afternoon the jet associated with the approaching low begins to move over Northern Nevada, while at the same time the surface pressure gradient across Northern Nevada tightens. The NBM is keeping wind gusts below advisory levels Friday and Saturday, however the GFS deterministic run has low end advisory winds for most of the CWA Friday afternoon and evening. Increasing confidence with the low centering over NV Saturday, which if verified will result in much cooler temperatures with afternoon highs in the 70s for most locations. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in temperatures remaining above seasonal values today through Friday. High forecast confidence in dry weather persisting through at least Friday. Moderate forecast confidence in much cooler temperatures next weekend. No deviations from the NBM output. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions at all terminals today and tonight. Dry with periods of SCT-BKN clouds at FL200, along with breezy W-SW winds gusting to around 20kts this afternoon. AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to communications issue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Maximum temperatures this afternoon will be seven to nine degrees above seasonal values. Elevated fire weather conditions expected in parts of Northern and Central Nevada from 11 AM PDT Monday morning until 10 PM PDT Monday evening due to southwest to west wind gusts near 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 4 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions anticipated throughout Northern and Central Nevada Thursday and Friday due to strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity values. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87/96 AVIATION...96 FIRE WEATHER...87