Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
623 FXUS65 KLKN 042016 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1216 PM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1056 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 * Light rain/snow showers are likely across Northern Nevada this evening through Saturday evening * Gusty winds in northern Elko County Saturday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Models continue to track a weak shortwave riding upper level northwesterly flow into the area Thursday night. High pressure to the west continues to direct northerly flow in its eastern flank across the western CONUS. Vorticity with this system is mediocre at best, but frontogenesis over northern Elko County early Friday morning will help to initiate snow showers over the area. This FG is collocated with where highest snowfall amounts for valley floors exist in the Owyhee River Basin and along the northern NV border. Models continue to push accumulating snow further south into central NV valleys in northern Eureka and White Pine counties. Better moisture values continue to buoy this notion of snow further south though accumulation totals for valley floors continues to range from a dusting to less than inch. Better accumulations exist for Elko County high elevations and peaks where over a foot of fresh snowpack is forecast, especially for the Ruby Mountains and Jarbidge Wilderness Area. Current model run initiates snow over southeastern Elko County and northern Eureka and White Pine Counties sooner this evening, but also initiates a temperature warm up earlier Friday morning as winds back more westerly. This warmup will increase snow levels above 6500 feet and change precipitation for lower elevations to rainfall. A tighter pressure gradient over northeastern NV will create stronger surface winds Friday evening through Saturday. Cautious driving should be practiced along I-80 and US-93 in Elko County. Moisture advection from the west-northwest reinforces available moisture over the northern half of the state Saturday AM keeping chances for light shower activity over the area through Saturday evening before a dryout Sunday AM. This decrease in moisture is in response to the high pressure to the west encroaching on the SW CONUS. Monday evening into Tuesday a shortwave slides its axis along the northern NV border though lack of moisture and forcing over the region confines precipitation chances to the northern border. Models are beginning to resolve a large trough impacting the Great Basin towards the end of next week though timing and impacts are beyond the current forecast period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in a weak system that will bring precipitation to northeastern and east- central NV Friday through Sunday AM. Moderate confidence exists in exact timing of snowfall and changeover to rain in the valleys as well as accumulation amounts for elevation regions and peaks in northeastern NV. Low confidence exists in the timing and impacts of a large upper level trough layer next week. No major grid changes are needed at this time. && .AVIATION... Intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday as CIGs lower and precipitation chances in the form of snow and rain showers increase at KEKO by 03Z Friday, followed by KBAM, KWMC, and KENV between 04Z and 07Z. CIGs will lower to below 1000ft in the presence of rain and snow showers lowering VIS in the process. Precipitation at all terminals except for KTPH is forecast through Friday afternoon. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99