794
FXUS65 KLKN 230914
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
214 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms through the middle of next week

* Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to
  heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently
  burned areas

* Cooling trend continues today as mid-level moisture and
  increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Monsoonal flow continues to bring shower and thunderstorm chances
for the Silver State through Wednesday, but changes next week
look to deliver drier conditions back to the Great Basin. Models
continue to show 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, but these chances drop to 10% to 30%
Tuesday and Wednesday, as High pressure over the southern plains
builds west into Arizona. Storm modes through Monday still favor
more wet storm modes, but there will still be a chance for a few
dry thunderstorms, as storm motion increases. Tuesday and
Wednesday as moisture flow becomes restricted the chances for dry
thunder will increase as well. Common hazards for storms will
include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, ground lightning
strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. After Wednesday, models still
show that the upper ridge will try and work its way back west and
shifting the upper flow back to a WSW direction, thus cutting off
moisture. What is interesting is models are now split on what will
build in. The ECMWF wants to bring the ridge back over the
Colorado River valley which would mean SW flow and warmer
temperatures due to thicker heights. The GFS is wanting to also
bring the ridge west, but it keep the ridge farther south, and
wants to bring the Pacific NW under a longwave troughing setup.
This will bring more westerly flow, which would be dry, but it
would also be cooler given the lower forecast heights by 30 dM
when compared to the EC. So overall confidence remains mixed for
the extended, as conditions look dry, but as for winds and
temperatures it is uncertain. For now will keep Temperatures in
the low 80s to low 90s, overnight lows range into the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Winds will be breezy through the weekend and into the new
week as winds shift more south to southwest in line with the
upper level flow pattern at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up
to 30 MPH possible. Winds look to shift back to the west after
Wednesday with higher speeds possible through the following
weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada through Monday.

There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for a mix of
isolated dry and wet thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is moderate confidence in dry conditions returning to the
Great Basin Thursday trough Sunday of next week.

There is low confidence in the upper pattern after Wednesday as
models are split on potential solutions for winds, and
temperatures.


&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through
Sunday evening. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5KT
to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. VCTS will
be possible during afternoon and evening hours as monsoonal flow
keeps a 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Southerly flow will keep monsoonal moisture over the region
through Wednesday of next week. This moisture will keep a daily
20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada. Hazards from storms
will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, Ground lightning
strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. High Pressure ridge to the east
will begin to impinge on moisture flow by Tuesday and Wednesday
dropping storm coverage to isolated and storm chances to 10% to
30% for a mix of wet or dry thunderstorms. High Pressure looks to
cut off monsoon flow fully by Thursday and Friday bringing drier
conditions. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 10 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 MPH possible, after Thursday winds
shift to west to southwest with similar speeds through the
weekend.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98