Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
433 FXUS65 KLKN 041933 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1233 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * There is a 20-30% probability of thunderstorms in Northeastern Nye and Southeastern White Pine Counties Thursday afternoon * There is a 20-30% probability of thunderstorms in Nye and White Pine Counties Friday afternoon * Warming trend Friday through at least Sunday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1233 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will dig southward across the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into tonight. This trough of low pressure will move southward over Northern Nevada Thursday and Thursday night. There should be adequate atmospheric instability and moisture in place to support widely separated thunderstorm development in Northeastern Nye and Southeastern White Pine Counties Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Thursday afternoon will be two to four degrees warmer than this afternoon. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 80 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Thursday, June 5th, 2025: Winnemucca - 100% Tonopah - 100% Battle Mountain - 97% Elko - 90% Eureka - 90% Carlin - 90% West Wendover - 80% McDermitt - 75% Ely - 45% Spring Creek - 20% Dry conditions remain the dominant weather pattern over the silver state Friday as upper ridging strengthens over the western U.S. A low pressure system over the Pacific Ocean west of California Coast is steadily keeping moisture within the region, keeping chances for isolated showers and thunderstorm present towards central and southern Nevada in the afternoon, however atmospheric stability from the high pressure keeps those chances at or below 20% which may result in more dry convection. There is moisture present in northern Nevada, but PW values stay low, keeping low confidence in any storm development. Weather activity is not expected to last long as high pressure takes hold and leaves drier, calmer conditions late afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Largest source of uncertainty is areal coverage and development of thunderstorms both Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. The greatest source of atmospheric instability and moisture could remain south of the forecast area, thereby limiting thunderstorm formation. No deviations from the NBM output. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour period. SCT and BKN clouds with ceilings ranging from FL100 to FL250 at central terminals and KENV. Slight chance of thunderstorms developing in central and southern Nevada. Winds will generally be from the north at 8-12 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts at KTPH. AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening Thursday and Friday in portions of Central Nevada. A warming trend is anticipated Friday through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Precipitation is possible across Northern Nevada Monday and Tuesday. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87/97 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...87