145
FXUS65 KLKN 182201
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
301 PM PDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Upper trough responsible for isolated shower chances
today will finally shift east into the four corners region
allowing for quiet weather to return to NV. The quiet wont last
for long as additional systems in line to track across the Silver
state next week bringing chances for showers Monday and Friday and
Saturday of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night

Longwave upper trough over the Great Basin continues to be the
major player for Silver State weather this weekend, but it will
finally shifts east Saturday. With the strong upper and mid level
northerly flow, and a cool air mass at the surface, adjacent to
the upper trough over Utah there continues to be an influx of weak
instability aloft that when combined with daytime heating, will
help generate convective build-ups and a few isolated to scattered
rain/snow showers across the eastern third of Nevada, locations
east of Elko, Eureka, and Ely today and this evening. Overall
chances still remain low at 10% to 25% of a location seeing a
shower but the opportunity for a convective rain/snow pellet
shower exists as long as the upper low is near by. Temperatures
will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year with
highs Friday reaching the mid 40s to mid 50s. Lows Saturday
morning look to be chilly as well with temperatures in the upper
teens to upper 20s. Winds will be breezy Friday as well with north
to northeast winds at 10 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH
possible. Saturday the upper trough will finally shift southeast
into the four corners region, allowing for a shortwave ridge to
build in across the Great Basin into the inter-mountain west. This
will finally push the instability out of Nevada which will lead
to quieter conditions with lighter winds. Highs Saturday will
recover to normal, to slightly above normal with temperatures in
the middle 50s to middle 60s. Overnight lows will also recover a
bit as well with temperatures Sunday morning in the upper 20s to
upper 30s. The main change, other than the return plentiful
sunshine will be the light and variable winds, which will run at 5
MPH to 10MPH with an occasional gust to 15 MPH. Wind direction
will also change by Saturday afternoon, starting N to NE, becoming
variable then shifting to the west to SW by Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday.
A trough dropping southeast from the Pacific Northwest states
will bring slightly cooler temperatures and light precipitation to
northeast Nevada on Monday morning. However, temperatures will
still be relatively warm, with afternoon highs reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s in northern Elko county. As a result, no
significant accumulation or impacts from winter precipitation on
roadways is expected. Outside of northeast Nevada, warmer
temperatures and dry weather is forecast, with highs in the upper
60s and lower 70s. Northwest winds between 15-20 kts and gusts up
to 25 kts are expected in northern Nevada, with east-northeast
winds of the same speed in central NV.

High pressure on Tuesday will result in dry weather and highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s for the entire state. The winds will
shift to westerly but be at the same speed in the afternoon. On
Wednesday, highs will remain warm, but a weak trough may bring a
trace of precipitation to parts of northern Nevada before things
dry out again due to high pressure on Thursday morning. Beginning
Thursday afternoon, model runs are suggesting a low pressure
system off the west coast will influence our weather, bringing
gusty southeast winds, cooler temperatures, and precipitation.
Thunderstorms are possible for Thursday afternoon in parts of
eastern Nevada due to instability and frontogenesis, although the
probability is low.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals through
Sunday. Light showers are forecast in KEKO, KELY, and KENV at
times, but no reductions in visibility at the surface expected.
No precipitation forecast for KTPH, KBAM, and KWMC through Sunday.
Wind gusts of up to 20 kts at KEKO and KWMC, and gusts up to 30
kts at KTPH and KELY expected this afternoon. Winds will become
light later this evening.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

98/89/89