437
FXUS65 KLKN 152041
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
141 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 943 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

* Elevated fire weather conditions in parts of Northern and
  Central Nevada Monday

* Dry weather will persist today through at least Sunday

* Moderate heat risk in the valleys of Southern Elko and White
  Pine Counties Wednesday and Thursday

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 943 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Southwest flow across for the rest of Sunday exists ahead of an
amplifying upper level trough that will strengthen just offshore
and move inland by Monday morning. The trough pushes through the
Great Basin Monday evening into Tuesday but with PW values between
0.3 and 0.4 inches at best precipitation chances are slim (ECMWF
is suggesting a few hundredths over eastern Elko County Monday
evening). Biggest impacts with the dry boundary passage
associated with the trough will be a slight dip in temperatures
for the region. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s and possibly 90s
will fall back into the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Behind the
trough a brief WNW pattern exists over the Great Basin Tuesday
before zonal flow aloft in a broad ridge axis builds into the area
by Wednesday.

Wednesday through next Sunday...Zonal flow Wednesday gets shifted
southwesterly as the large LPS to the northwest begins to
encroach on the Pacific NW and the western CONUS in general. After
the quick reprieve from hot weather early in the week HeatRisk
gets introduced to a large portion of the CWA beginning Wednesday
with afternoon highs returning to the upper 80s and 90s, about 10
degrees above normal for the area. Forecasted highs currently are
not above local records for those days though a few are within a
degree or two of being in jeopardy. Thursday it gets worse with
some elevations below 5000 feet forecast to see near triple digit
high temperatures. Combined with insufficient diurnal relief
overnight Heat Advisories are all but guaranteed and maybe even an
Extreme Heat Warning for some locations remains a possibility.

Beyond Thursday with the LPS tightening the pressure gradient
over the Great Basin, the focus shifts to fire weather conditions.
Southwesterly winds will increase substantially headed into the
weekend. The GACC fuels call this week will be a catalyst to
potential products being issued for wind/RH concerns Friday and
Saturday. Forecasted sustained winds of 25-30 mph across the CWA
both afternoons combined with RH values well below 15% place the
region well into fire weather criteria. The update on status of
fuels around the area will be important especially given the
recent hot, dry weather the state has endured.

Model spread exists on exact timing of passage of the associated
boundary with the system between Saturday evening and Sunday
morning next weekend. Model do agree, however, on a big time cool
down as forecasted highs drop significantly back into the 60s and
70s Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows are forecast to fall back
into the 40s and possibly 30s Saturday night. Some anomalous
ensemble members of GFS and ECMWF are even resolving snow next
weekend for the Elko area! Confidence in that outcome is very low,
however, as model runs this week evolve the prognosis.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence in hot temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons leading to HeatRisk across large portions of the CWA
remains high with Heat products all but assured for those days.
Friday and Saturday synoptic conditions are in good agreement
across model runs of a `slam dunk` fire weather setup over the
area. The question will be what happens with the GACC fuels call
this week as to how we proceed in terms of products. Lower
confidence exists in timing and impact of strong system next
weekend. Model disagreement exists on how much precipitation the
area will receive as well as how low temperatures will drop next
weekend. Changes will almost certainly need to be made to grids if
NBM does not fall in line with model runs this week.

&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions forecast to be the primary flight conditions at
all terminal sites through Monday. Winds will remain light to
breezy out of the W at 10KT to 20KT with occasional gusts up to
30KT possible.

KTPH remains AMD NOT SKED due to communications issues with the
ASOS.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon
for zones 437 and parts of 424 and 438 due to the combination of
light to breezy SW winds of 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH
possible and low RH values of between 7% and 15%. For Monday
elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for Zones 437,
424, 427, and 426 as winds shift to westerly and pick up in
response to a approaching upper trough, RH values look to remain
near 7% to 15% as wind speeds of 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts to 30
MPH will be possible. Further east marginal fire weather
conditions exist for 438, 469, 470, and 425 this afternoon and
Tuesday as winds remain lighter and RH values range above critical
levels. High pressure ridge located over southern New Mexico will
keep dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and dry
southwesterly flow aloft over Nevada through next weekend. Another
upper trough traveling through the Pacific NW Friday will bring
breezy SW to westerly winds and a return of elevated fire
conditions, will need to keep an eye on fuels this week as fire
weather headlines may be needed.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98