Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
447 FXUS65 KLKN 272101 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 201 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 153 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 * Flood Watch for most of Northern and Central Nevada thru 1100PM this evening. * Slight risk of excessive rainfall in Northern Elko County today * Marginal risk of excessive rainfall elsewhere across the forecast area today * Marginal risk of excessive rainfall within much of Nevada Thursday && .UPDATE... Issued at 153 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the region and trends indicate precipitation chances are increasing overall, and will continue through sunset. The current forecast remains on track at this time. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level ridge remains situated over the Great Basin today while a region of low pressure moves south toward the Oregon coast. Adequate sub-tropical moisture remains over the Great Basin today for numerous showers and thunderstorms to redevelop. Hourly rainfall rates are still anticipated to be near one and a half inches in and near northern Elko County this afternoon and this evening, with rates around one inch expected elsewhere, though primarily under cells of heavier rain, with light to moderate rainfall also present. A Flood Watch is in effect for the majority of Northern and Central Nevada until 11 PM PDT this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts as high as 50 mph, cloud to ground lightning strikes, and small hail. Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding, especially within recent burn scars and complex terrain. Showers and thunderstorms dissipate thru this evening but are again expected Thursday, and to a lesser extent Friday, before dry weather returns for the weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding rainfall thru the end of the week, though exact accumulations will be somewhat variable due to the showery nature of the rainfall. Increasing uncertainty beyond the weekend as model solutions begin to diverge. Blend of ECMWF, GFS, and SREF favored for POP and weather fields. && .AVIATION...Thunderstorms are expected to continue around all terminals this afternoon and evening. MVFR or lower conditions are possible with thunderstorms but confidence is too low for TAF inclusion. Prevailing winds look to stay below 10KT at all sites but thunderstorms may cause short lived gusty or variable conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Ample subtropical moisture continues to produce widespread wet showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area today with activity dissipating thru this evening. Mostly dry conditions expected after midnight. However, activity returns Thursday, and to a lesser extent Friday before becoming dry for the weekend. Primary thunderstorm hazards will be the usual fare of erratic and strong outflow wind gusts near 50 mph, cloud to ground lightning strikes, and potentially small hail. In addition, moderate to heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across the area, and especially within recent burn scars where runoff is exacerbated and much less precipitaton is required to produce dangerous flash flooding or debris flows, especially in areas of complex terrain. Otherwise, gradient winds produce some west- northwesterly breezes this afternoon with gusts around 20 mph, particularly across northern Nevada. However minimum afternoon RH will remain well above the 15% threshold given widespread and wetting rains across the forecast area. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ031-033>041. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...84