089
FXUS65 KLKN 162023
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
123 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

* Hot high temperatures Thursday afternoon have prompted a Heat
  Advisory for southern portions of Elko County

* Strong southwesterly winds will create fire weather conditions
  for a large portion of northern and central Nevada Friday and
  Saturday afternoon

* A strong system this weekend will help to cool down temperatures
  to below seasonal norms this weekend

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper level trough stationed to the west of the state on Monday
will trek eastward and pass through the state overnight into
Tuesday. Prior to frontal passage southwesterly wind speeds over
portions of Nye and White Pine Counties will be strong enough to
warrant fire weather concerns despite fuels currently in the zone
of `Approaching Critical`. With scarce moisture availability
precipitation is not anticipated with the associated boundary
passage. The system will bring the area a brief reprieve from hot
weather through Tuesday.

Brief northwesterly flow on Tuesday begins to shift more zonal by
Tuesday evening in response to a building ridge over the SW CONUS.
The associated HPC sets up to the southeast over AZ and NM on
Wednesday turning low level flow to a southerly course. This will
be the catalyst for an immediate increase in temperatures for the
area beginning Wednesday when afternoon highs are forecast to top
out in the low 90s for much of the region.

Thursday through next Monday...The southerly turn of winds through
the profile on Thursday will bear consequences as afternoon highs
soar into the 90s and approach the century mark for portions of
southeast Elko County. This has prompted a Heat Advisory for
southern Elko County for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Friday the pressure gradient over the state tightens considerably
as a large Aleutian low encroaches on the western CONUS from the
northwest. This will increase southwesterly wind speeds Friday
afternoon to well above criteria for fire weather conditions.
Combined with RH values in single digits for much of northern and
central NV fire weather watches and warnings are a possibility IF
the GACC fuels call this week updates local fuels to critical
levels. Fire weather conditions are expected to persist through
Saturday as the pressure gradient over the area remained tight as
the low passes to the north. In response to the tightly wound
system and its associated boundary temperatures through the
weekend and into early next week will fall back to below seasonal
norms with forecasted highs ranging in the 60s and 70s through
Monday.

A series of shortwaves embedded in the upstream flow of the
parent trough will traverse across the area early next week.
Currently model guidance keeps any precipitation that does
initiate to the north along the northern NV border persisting the
current dry spell for much of the region.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence remains high for near record breaking heat on Thursday
as well as favorable synoptic setup for fire weather conditions on
Friday and Saturday. Confidence is increasing regarding the impact
of the weekend`s system on temperatures. No deviations to the
grids were needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions forecast to persist through Tuesday,
gusty westerly winds of 10KT to 20KT with gusts to 30KT will be
possible for all terminals through 4Z this evening.

KTPH remains AMD NOT SKED due to communications issues with the
ASOS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon
and evening due to an approaching upper level trough. This system
will only clip northern Nevada, acting to generate gusty westerly
winds of 10 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH, in concert with
afternoon minimum relative humidity levels that can support fire
spread as values drop to between 5% and 15%. A strong upper level
ridge of high pressure over the SW US will continue to drive
temperatures for the region well above normal, there is a
potential for near record to record heat for Wednesday and
Thursday, although winds for these day will not be as strong as
Monday, RH will keep similar values dropping to 5% to 15% during
the late afternoons. The next upper trough is expected to approach
the region for Friday into the weekend. For Friday again strong
winds are expected across the region, and with above normal temps
and low RH values IF fuels stay on current trends for curing, fire
headlines may be needed. Good news is that with models showing
that the track of the upper trough takes it into the Silver state,
much cooler temperatures, and higher RH levels are forecast for
the weekend, with even the potential for some precipitation as
well.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight PDT Thursday night
for NVZ033-038-039.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98