Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
099 FXUS65 KLKN 170713 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1213 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening * Elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County Monday * Warming trend Monday through Thursday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will remain over the Southeastern United States today. Southerly flow should keep monsoonal moisture streaming northward into most of Eastern Nevada again today, resulting in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. The aforementioned anticyclone aloft will gradually retrograde westward Monday through Saturday. As a result, the flow should shift from southerly to southwesterly, pushing monsoonal moisture eastward. There is an elevated risk of wildfires in Humboldt County Monday afternoon into Monday evening due to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 11 percent. A warming trend is expected Monday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, high temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. High temperatures will remain above seasonal values Friday and Saturday. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 90 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Thursday, August 20th, 2026: Tonopah - 97% West Wendover - 97% Elko - 96% Winnemucca - 96% Battle Mountain - 96% Carlin - 96% Eureka - 96% Wells - 96% Spring Creek - 95% Ely - 95% FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in most of Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. NBM grids had no accounting for thunderstorms in northeastern NV Monday afternoon in either the Pops or Wx grids so SST and SerpISC were used to add thunder to grids between 18Z Monday and 06Z Tuesday. Moderate forecast confidence regarding a warming trend Monday through Thursday. Low forecast confidence in elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County Monday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO and KENV this afternoon into this evening. Direct thunderstorm impact cannot be ruled out. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Humboldt County Monday due to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 11 percent. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...87 FIRE WEATHER...87