Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
421 FXUS65 KLKN 291942 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1242 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 111 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025 * Showers and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms this afternoon * Dry and fair weather this weekend * Thunderstorms return early next week, primarily across central Nevada && .UPDATE... Issued at 1242 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025 The current forecast remains on track at this time. No updates are needed. .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Subtropical moisture begins to diminish today but remains sufficient enough to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storm modes will begin dry and transition to a mix of wet and dry as the afternoon progresses. Activity dissipates thru the evening with storms coming to an end by midnight. Skies will also clear thru the night, becoming mostly clear by sunrise Saturday. Great Basin continues to dry out for the weekend as an upper level ridge amplifies. Fair weather will be present Saturday and Sunday, although enough atmospheric moisture looks to remain present that afternoon cumulus are likely before skies trend mostly clear overnight. Ridge continues to amplify early next week over the western U.S. with a gradual warming trend, and daytime high temperatures peaking on Monday with readings in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the valleys. Latest progs continue to indicate that atmospheric moisture will begin to creep north again and into the forecast area as the ridge amplifies. Diurnally driven isolated thunderstorms with a mix of wet and dry storm modes are expected by Tuesday across central Nevada. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence thru the period, though exact rainfall accumulations this afternoon will be variable given the isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Bit of uncertainty also acknowledged in atmospheric moisture content and areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms next week. Though, highly confident in the bulk of the activity occurring across central Nevada. High deviation from the NBM with various model blends and manual edits used to produce POP and weather fields. && .AVIATION...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of KELY and KENV, but all other sites are expected to remain dry at this time. Gusty winds up to 15KT expected at KELY during the afternoon. No other visibility, weather or wind concerns expected at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER...Subtropical moisture begins to diminish today but remains sufficient enough to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storm modes will begin dry and transition to a mix of wet and dry as the afternoon progresses. Activity dissipates thru the evening with storms coming to an end by midnight. Skies will also clear thru the night, becoming mostly clear by sunrise Saturday. Primary thunderstorm hazards will be the usual fare of erratic and strong outflow wind gusts around 45 mph and cloud to ground lightning. Otherwise, prevailing winds will be generally light and minimum afternoon RH will remain above the 15% threshold. Weather will be dry this weekend as a ridge of high pressure begins to amplify over the western U.S. That said, atmospheric moisture profiles are progged to remain high enough that afternoon cumulus clouds are expected across most of the forecast area. Minimum afternoon RH readings move into the teens this weekend. Afternoon prevailing winds remain generally light thru the weekend as well and down valley and downslope winds will be dominant overnight under mostly clear skies. Atmospheric moisture begins to creep north and back into the Great Basin early next week as the upper level ridge continues to amplify. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will return to central Nevada, primarily Tuesday and beyond, and based on the current progs, storm modes look to be a mix of wet and dry. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...92 HYDRO...