453
FXUS65 KLKN 172026
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
126 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

* Near record heat possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons

* Heat Advisory for southern Elko County Thursday

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions in Northern and
  Central Nevada for Thursday and Friday

* Much cooler this weekend


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 122 PM PDT Tue Jun
17 2025

High pressure centered over central Baja California will build NE
into the Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico through Saturday. This
Ridge will be the main driver of weather conditions for Nevada
with the possibility of near record to record heat for Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons for much of NE Nevada as a heat advisory
remains in effect for southern Elko county Thursday. Also for
Thursday a strong upper level trough will dig south from the Gulf
of Alaska, Models have been fairly consistent with the evolution
of this trough and its forecast strength, This trough will begin
to influence the region Thursday and Friday by tightening the
pressure gradient over Nevada leading to a increase in the SW flow
aloft and at the surface. Considering that temperatures will
remain well above normal and with afternoon RH values consistently
near 5% to 15% will need to watch for fire weather conditions as
SW winds strengthen to 15 MPH to 30 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH
possible. For Thursday afternoon critical fire weather conditions
may prevail for central NV, and for Friday afternoon the wind
field expands to include much of northern Nevada as well with
critical fire weather concerns possible for all but far NE Elko
County. Saturday will see a strong cold front move through Nevada
as the trough pushes the ridge into the central plains. Timing
will be key as any slow down in the trough will keep potential
critical fire weather conditions in place longer, current trend
show that Saturday afternoon the front will be along a Austin to
Elko to Jackpot line. To the south of the front temperatures will
reach the upper 80s to upper 90s, with strong SW winds of 15 MPH
to 30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH possible. However to the north of
the front temperature will quickly fall into the low 70s to low
80s with RH rising to near 40%. Sunday and Monday will see the
trough overhead and much cooler temperatures along with decent RH
recovery as highs will only reach the low 60s to low 70s,
depending on the exact track of the trough there will be a window
for some light precipitation for Humboldt county Saturday night
into Sunday, but as models keep wavering on this potential, the
probability remains low at 20% to 40%. With the pattern change
models keep general troughing over the NW US through the middle of
next week which will keep temperatures near to to slightly below
normal with low chances for showers for the period.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Overall model agreement has been strong with the forecast large
scale pattern for the week, leading to a general high confidence
forecast. There is high confidence in the potential for near
record to record heat for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. There
is a high confidence in the potential for elevated fire weather
conditions for much of central and northern Nevada for Thursday
and Friday afternoons, and a moderate confidence in the potential
for critical fire weather conditions for central and western
Nevada Friday afternoon. There is increasing confidence in the
possibility of a large scale pattern change leading to much cooler
temperatures beginning Saturday as high pressure is replaced by
troughing over the western US. However there is low confidence in
the possibility of precipitation for northern Humboldt county
Sunday as model run to run consistency is lacking.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Wednesday
afternoon with no precipitation in the forecast at this time.
Afternoon winds will at or below 11KTs at all terminals except for
KTPH where gusts of around 20-22KTs are expected, but will
diminish by sunset. On Wednesday afternoon gusts are expected to
increase slightly at all terminals.

KTPH remains AMD NOT SKED due to communications issues with the
ASOS.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Despite RH values at or below 15% across the region Tuesday
afternoon, fire weather conditions are not anticipated as wind
speeds are generally light across northern and central NV through
Tuesday evening. The focus of Wednesday will be warming
temperatures as afternoon highs will reach into the lower 90s for
zones 437/438/469/470 and mid to upper 90s for zones
424/425/426/427. Some locations in central NV, specifically zones
426 and the southern portion of 425 may see triple digit
temperatures for highs Wednesday afternoon. A slight increase in
winds is forecasted for Wednesday afternoon across all zones
though wind speeds remain below criteria for now.


&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight PDT Thursday night
for NVZ033-038-039.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99