472
FXUS65 KLKN 180910 CCA
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Elko NV
210 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 130 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

* Isolated to scattered wet thunderstorms expected in Eastern
  Nevada today and Saturday.

* Heavy rainfall expected over southern half of White Pine and
  northeastern Nye counties today.

* Elevated fire weather conditions in the majority of Northern and
  Central Nevada Sunday and Monday afternoons.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Current satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area. An area of low pressure near the Baja Peninsula
will continue lifting northward over SoCAL. Consistent with WPC`s
slight risk for excessive rainfall today, increasing atmospheric
moisture combined with instability will support isolated to
scattered wet and dry thunderstorms, primarily in eastern Nevada
this afternoon and evening.

Latest model guidance remains consistent, showing northward
advection of above normal PWATs (~1 inch) into southern and
central Nevada, including the southern half of White Pine and
northeastern Nye Counties. By Saturday, the low pressure system
will open into a trough, bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to portions of central Nevada - mainly White Pine
and northeastern Nye Counties.

Elsewhere, warm and dry conditions will persist into the weekend
as Nevada sits between broad cyclonic flow in the Pacific
Northwest and high pressure over the Great Plains. Highs will
range from the upper 80s to upper 90s, with overnight lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. A tightening pressure gradient will bring
increased south to southwest winds Sunday and Monday afternoons.

By early next week, the synoptic pattern shifts as cyclonic flow
over the Pacific Northwest lifts northward. The latest cluster
analysis and probabilistic ensemble guidance are gradually
converging on the timing of the next upper level longwave trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest between Sunday and Thursday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected with afternoon highs trending
near normal for this time of year.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Moderate to high confidence in isolated to scattered wet and dry
thunderstorms across much of eastern Nevada today. Some storms
over southern White Pine and northeastern Nye Counties could
produce locally excessive rainfall, with rates up to 1.5 inches
per hour. Expanded coverage of wet and dry thunderstorms this
afternoon into the evening. No other significant deviations from
NBM guidance.

High confidence in isolated to scattered wet thunderstorms
continuing over eastern Nevada Saturday afternoon. Moderate
confidence in elevated fire weather conditions across northern and
central Nevada Sunday and Monday due to increased winds and low
RH.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals this morning.
Thunderstorm probabilities this afternoon into this evening will
vary from as high as 37 percent at KELY to as low as 2 percent at
KWMC. Outside of thunderstorms winds this afternoon into this
evening will generally be southwest, with gusts up to 25 knots. In
and near thunderstorms, wind gusts near 55 mph are conceivable at
KENV, wind gusts near 50 mph are possible at KELY, and wind gusts
near 45 mph are conceivable at KTPH.

Thunderstorms are expected to diminish by the mid-evening hours,
with dry and mild conditions at all terminals tonight.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered wet thunderstorms are expected across
eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today and Saturday.
Primary hazards include erratic wind gusts up to 55 mph and
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated for northern and
central Nevada Sunday and Monday afternoons due to south to
southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity
values dropping as low as 6 percent.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...90