949
FXUS65 KLKN 290822
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
122 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Increasing precipitation chances this weekend from several upper
  level trough systems.

* Cooler temperatures reaching several degrees below normal over
  the weekend.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Large and complex upper level trough of low pressure is starting
to make its way on shore. Models are still showing a complex upper
level setup consisting of a large parent longwave trough that
will stretch along the entire west coast. Making up the trough
trough are up to four local maximums in vorticity, that will act
as a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms that
will last through Monday morning. The first will be a weak shallow
shortwave that will lead the parent trough, moving through
central NV Thursday afternoon as it dissipates. Friday through
Sunday, the main trough energy will push in with three remaining
vorticity maximums. One off the coast of Washington, one off the
southern California channel Islands, and a third in the middle off
of the SF Bay area. Models have shown some consistency that this
middle vorticity max will become the dominant area of lift as it
moves over Nevada, as the southern low now looks to become
absorbed by the dominant trough segment. Model timing has also
become more consistent as the bulk of the precipitation looks to
fall on Sunday, with isolated to scattered showers possible Friday
and Saturday. Current multi-day precipitation amounts have risen
some more given the slower movement with about a trace to 0.45 of
rain for passes and valleys, with up to 0.50 to an inch plus of
water for the higher passes and mountains. Snow levels will again
start high at 9000 feet, dropping to about 7000 feet by Sunday.
With a trace to 0.5 possible for the higher elevation passes
passes, and up to 1 foot of snow for the range peaks. Monday
afternoon high pressure will build in as the trough departs
bringing quieter weather back into the region this ridge will be
in place at least through Thursday, as models are wanting to bring
another trough through Nevada for the following weekend.
Temperatures will be near to, to slightly below normal for the
weekend,and into next week as high will range in the upper 40s to
upper 50s, with lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence for the potential for several rounds of
scattered showers and thunderstorms starting late Thursday
afternoon, and persisting on and off through early Monday morning.

There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Monday
afternoon through at least Tuesday of next week which will bring
quiet, dry conditions for the region.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through
Friday morning. Upper level system approaching Nevada will bring a
chance for VCSH and VCTS for KELY, KEKO, and KENV for the
afternoon to evening, while shift winds to the S to SW at 5KT to
15KT with gusts up to 25KT possible.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire Weather conditions will be low next several days for all
zones. A large upper level storm system is expected to move across
the west coast beginning this afternoon, an exiting Monday
morning. Several rounds of isolated to scattered rain showers, a
few thunderstorms, and mountain snowfall will be possible, even as
wind remain on the breezy side out of the S to SW at similar
speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98