224
FXUS65 KLKN 180745
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1245 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1248 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025

* Low chance of isolated, light precipitation in Northern
  Humboldt and Northern Elko Counties Sunday afternoon through
  Monday morning

* Strong west to northwest winds across portions of northern and
  central Nevada Sunday afternoon

* Cooler across northern Nevada Monday and Tuesday

&&


.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Skies are clear tonight across northern and central Nevada.
Gridded forecast is on track, no updates are planned.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Weather remains benign tonight under
northwesterly flow with overnight low temperatures residing around
five degrees warmer than last night. This puts lows in the mid
20s to mid 30s. Saturday, synoptic set up defined by a cut off
upper level low positioned off the coast of Baja California, while
an upper level trof and attendant surface cold front move into
the PacNW from the northwest. Trof and cold front will progress
southeast and clip northern Nevada Sunday and into Monday morning.
Light precipitation is possible ahead of and along this cold
front, particularly in and near the Jarbidge Wilderness. Though
given around a 10% probability of precipitation at this time, will
maintain dry weather in the forecast. Winds will also be elevated
across northern Nevada, turning from southwesterly to
northwesterly, with gusts around 30 mph. Post frontal, cooler
temperatures will be present Monday, especially across Elko
County, and daytime high temperatures across northern Nevada will
be around ten degrees cooler Monday afternoon.

A low amplitude ridge of high pressure will build over the
western U.S. Tuesday. Though the afore mentioned cut off upper
level low positioned off the coast of Baja California looks to
progress to the northeast and across southern Nevada Wednesday.
Enhanced atmospheric moisture associated with this feature should
remain south and east of the service area, though numerical model
solutions are not ruling out entirely the possibility for light
showers across central Nevada. Probabilities currently reside less
than 10% however. Fair weather indicated the latter portion of
the week, though south-southwesterly winds to increase Friday as
the next weather system moves into the west coast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate forecast confidence
regarding the possibility of light precipitation in Northern
Nevada Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Moderate forecast
confidence in cooler weather across northern Nevada Monday and
Tuesday. Moderate forecast confidence Wednesday regarding
precipitation potential across central Nevada. Otherwise minimal
deviation from the NBM forecast.

&&


.AVIATION...Under building high pressure VFR conditions are
anticipated at all terminals through tonight. No precipitation is
in the forecast and afternoon winds will be light at all
terminals.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...No significant fire weather concerns through next
week, and no thunderstorm activity is forecast as we move closer
to the winter season. That said, Sunday afternoon will see gusty
winds along the northern NV border, including fire weather zones
437, 438, 469, and 470 as a cold front clips the Silver State from
the northwest. Gusts around 35 mph can be expected along with
winds shifting from southwest to northwest in conjunction with the
frontal passage. Maintaining a dry forecast at this time as
probability of precipitation resides around 10%. Minimum afternoon
RH resides between 25% and 45% Sunday afternoon across northern
Nevada. Weather will be cool and fair Tuesday, though a
disturbance passing through southern Nevada Wednesday may produce
light showers across central Nevada zones 424, 427, 425, and 426.
Probability of precipitation is less than 10% for this event
however.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...92/86
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...92