Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
277 FXUS65 KLKN 142005 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 105 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1133 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025 * Elevated fire weather conditions in Southwestern Humboldt County today * Dry weather will persist through at least the next week * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values today through at least Friday * Near record heat in Elko, Eureka, and Ely Wednesday and Thursday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1133 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level ridging remains dominant over the Southwest through Monday with dry conditions and above normal high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. A weak shortwave trough will traverse the Great Basin Monday night into Tuesday, pushing a weak cold front eastward across the area. Moisture will remain limited with this system as precipitable water values remain below normal, thus no precipitation is expected through Tuesday. High pressure builds back across the West as an Aleutian Low shifts southward into the Pacific Northwest by Friday, further strengthening deep southwest flow across the Great Basin into the latter half of next week. With southwesterly winds increasing Wednesday through Friday and very low chances for any measurable precipitation/convection, expect fire weather conditions to become more favorable during this time as well. Many locations will also be under Moderate/Orange HeatRisk Wednesday and Thursday, which may necessitate heat headlines. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Blended in one part NBM 90th percentile to 2 parts deterministic NBM to boost afternoon winds across central Nevada each afternoon today through Monday for fire weather forecast consistency. High confidence in continued dry and warm to hot conditions through the upcoming week. Moderate confidence in record highs at Ely (55%) and Eureka (40%) Wednesday and at Elko (30%), Ely (30%), and Eureka (55%) Thursday. Moderate confidence in upper level troughing to bring a brief break to the above normal heat by next Saturday and Sunday with around 65% of long range ensemble solutions maintaining a cutoff low across the Pacific Northwest with cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions forecast to be the primary flight conditions at all terminal sites through Sunday. Winds will remain light to breezy out of the SW at 5KT to 15KT with occasional gusts up to 25KT possible. AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to communications issue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon for zones 437 and parts of 424 and 438 due to the combination of light to breezy SW winds of 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible and low RH values of between 7% and 15%. Elsewhere marginal fire weather conditions exist as winds remain light and RH values range above critical levels. High pressure ridge located over southern New Mexico will keep dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and dry southwesterly flow aloft over Nevada through next weekend. Approaching upper troughs traveling through the Pacific NW next week will bring periods of breezy SW winds and a return of elevated fire conditions for Tuesday and Friday of next week. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...84 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98