Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
564 FXUS65 KLKN 152045 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 145 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Elevated fire weather conditions in Central Nevada Tuesday thru Thursday * Low chance for showers along the Oregon and Idaho borders, and the eastern half of White Pine County Wednesday and Thursday * A warming trend will bring afternoon high temperatures back to seasonal averages by the weekend && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Latest numerical model guidance continues to show a ULT over the West Coast. The trough will deepen overnight and a cutoff low will form over OR and meander south into northern CA by Wednesday. With the low directly west of the CWA a tighter pressure gradient in its downstream flow will enhance southwesterly flow at the surface. This will create elevated fire weather conditions through Thursday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-35 mph are possible. Patchy blowing dust across central NV is expected during the afternoon hours both Wednesday and Thursday. Limited moisture and sufficient forcing associated with the low will create light shower activity along the border especially in northern Humboldt County on Thursday. Subtropical moisture streaming north across UT will spill over in extreme eastern NV Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday. Sufficient instability and LI values of 0 to -2 over eastern White Pine County create low probabilities of mainly dry thunderstorm activity tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain accumulation associated with this activity is limited: trace to several hundredths mainly in elevated regions of eastern White Pine County. The cutoff low slowly meanders eastward north of the state and introduces brief ridging over the SW CONUS by the weekend. This will initiate a warming trend late week that will bring afternoon high temperatures back into the upper 70s and low 80s. The weekend is expected to be dry under the ridge as another shortwave strengthens to the northwest off the west coast by Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday through Thursday afternoon. Low confidence exists for showers along the northern NV border and in eastern White Pine County this week. Moderate confidence remains in a warming trend into the weekend. Major grid edits were not necessary at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon SW winds will be breezy across central NV terminals of KTPH and KELY at 10KT to 25KT with gusts up to 35KT possible. Elsewhere winds will be W to SW at 5KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 25KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions will exist each afternoon across central and northeastern NV from Tuesday through Thursday. This includes FWZ 425/426/427/469/470. Strong southerly flow will create sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. RH values of 10-15% combined with strong southerly flow have prompted RFW for FWZ 426/427 both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. RH values across eastern NV are higher (18-28%) so a Fire Weather Watch was issued for FWZ 425/469/470 Thursday afternoon. Strong winds will lead to quick fire spread. Existing fires will exhibit extreme fire behavior. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning is in effect both Wednesday and Thursday from 11AM to 8PM PDT for NV-FWZ426, NV-FWX427. Fire Weather Watch is in on Thursday from 11AM to 8PM PDT for NV-FWZ425, NV-FWZ469, & NV-FWZ470. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...99