Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
118 FXUS65 KLKN 220900 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Rain showers and thunderstorms impact central and eastern Nevada Tuesday * Fair weather returns Wednesday though breezes will be present at the end of the week && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Tuesday) Light isolated to scattered showers, as well as a few thunderstorms will continue tonight into Tuesday as a upper level trough lifts across central and eastern Nevada. However there will be a sharp cutoff in precipitation chances as locations east of a Elko to Grass Valley, to Tonopah line will see a 30% to 70% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with some locations seeing up to 0.40 of precipitation. West of this line will see little in the way of moisture, with just increased cloud cover for Tuesday. The upper trough looks to shift east Wednesday, as the upper pattern over the Silver State becomes weak as a very broad upper level troughing redevelops on the back side of the departing trough, over Nevada and most of central and southern California. This flow setup looks to last through Sunday as a northern stream system looks to reset the SW flow over the Great Basin for Monday ahead of what may be a third upper level trough passing through Nevada Monday and Tuesday. Models differ some what on timing and position, as the GFS keeps the trough faster and shallower pushing the main energy through the Pacific NW and into Wyoming by Monday morning While the ECMWF is slower, stronger and further south moving the trough over southern Nevada through Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, the one main issue that models agree on is that this series of troughs will have almost no moisture to work with, keeping any precipitation out of the picture through next Wednesday at the least. The flip side is that winds will be relatively light for the period with W-SW winds ranging 5 MPH to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Temperatures will see a quick warm-up into the mid 80s by Thursday afternoon, before a cooling trend takes over due to a series of cool fronts associated with the upper troughing pattern drops highs back into the .middle 70s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in a 30% to 70% chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms Tuesday for central and far eastern Nevada. There is high confidence in a much drier, yet cooler and less windy pattern for Nevada starting Thursday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Wednesday morning afternoon. Winds will be variable at speeds of 5KT to 15KT as an upper trough transits central NV, While VCTS will be possible for KTPH, KELY, KENV, and perhaps as far west as KEKO Tuesday afternoon. However KWMC and KBAM look to remain dry for Tuesday into Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire Weather conditions will remain low over the the next week as a series of weak upper level troughs move through the Great Basin region. Tuesday will see a 30% to 70% for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Fire Zones 425, 426, 427, and 470. Precipitation amounts for locations fortunate to see storms could receive up to 0.40, however most will see between a trace to 0.15 of rain. This first trough exits Wednesday, moisture will become very sparse, even as the upper pattern favors continued troughing over Nevada through next Wednesday. This set-up favor low fire weather conditions trough the period as winds will remain light, and temperature look to warm into the mid 80s through Thursday, with a cooling trend beginning Friday through next Wednesday with highs dropping into the mid 70s. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98