Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
645 FXUS65 KLKN 141024 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 324 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 250 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025 * Breezy to locally windy conditions across Central Nevada this afternoon and this evening * Periods of precipitation throughout Northern and Central Nevada today through Wednesday night * Accumulating light snow on passes and summits along Highway 50 tonight and Wednesday morning * Cooling trend today and Wednesday && .UPDATE... Issued at 250 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025 No significant changes have been made to the forecast for this period. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A cyclone aloft will move southward just off the coast of Northern California this afternoon and this evening. This atmospheric disturbance will be responsible for gusty south winds in Central Nevada this afternoon and this evening. The aforementioned upper-level area of low pressure will turn eastward tonight, before making landfall in Central California Tuesday. The cyclone aloft will progress northeastward across the Silver State Tuesday night through Wednesday night, before entering Big Sky Country Thursday. Precipitation ahead of the upper-level area of low pressure should begin to overspread Central Nevada late tonight or early Tuesday morning. Periods of precipitation are likely throughout Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday through Wednesday night. Snow levels will start at around 7,000 feet Tuesday morning, before dropping to about 6,000 feet Tuesday night. Accumulating snow is anticipated on passes and summits along Highway 50 Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Snow amounts will be as high as two to four inches on Austin Summit. Closer to the valley floor, rain amounts should be around one half of an inch. Here are probabilities of rain amounts of one half of an inch or more for locations in Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday through Wednesday night: Austin - 72% Eureka - 71% Tonopah - 66% Spring Creek - 62% Wells - 60% Carlin - 59% Battle Mountain - 55% Winnemucca - 51% Elko - 50% Ely - 47% A ridge of high pressure will build eastward across the Silver State Thursday and Friday. A ridge of high pressure will move eastward across the Western United States Saturday. A trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will approach Northern Nevada Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding gusty south winds in Central Nevada this afternoon and this evening. High forecast confidence in periods of precipitation throughout Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday through Wednesday night. High forecast confidence regarding a cooling trend Tuesday and Wednesday. Moderate forecast confidence in accumulating snow on passes and summits along Highway 50 Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through today at all terminals with -SHRA beginning across KTPH and KELY beginning late this morning with activity spreading north by the late afternoon and evening. The heaviest showers can temporarily reduce VSBY/CIGS to IFR or lower. Southerly wind gusts near 35 knots this afternoon are expected across the central terminals at KTPH and KELY. Showers should enter the vicinity of KTPH, starting at around 14Z Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... The next storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada today through Wednesday night, resulting in periods of precipitation. Snow levels will fall to about 6,000 feet tonight. The majority of precipitation will fall tonight. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87/86 AVIATION...87 FIRE WEATHER...87