504
FXUS65 KLKN 132131
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
231 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

* Elevated fire weather conditions will persist most of northern
  and central Nevada Friday, Saturday, and Sunday due to gusty
  winds and low relative humidity values.

* Dry weather with above normal temperatures continue today
  lasting through at least the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

High pressure centered over the Rio Grande River Valley will
remain in control over the southwestern US. This ridge will keep
much of the west coast under a dry southwesterly flow aloft,
keeping conditions for Nevada dry, temperatures above normal
temperature, with breezy southwest winds during the afternoon and
early evenings. This ridge induced pattern will continue through
Monday of next week, as models show a northern stream upper trough
making an approach to the Pacific Northwest, models are bit
uncertain with the track of this trough, and how far south it digs
before moving onshore. Current thinking is that this trough will
help weaken/flatten the upper ridge, allowing it to slide west and
south over the central Baja California Peninsula. The trough,
however is kept far enough north that any sensible impacts other
than wind shifts will stay well north of the Silver state. Should
this trough dig slightly farther south it could open the
possibility for a low 10% to 20% chance for a few showers across
the far northern Nevada Tuesday morning. For now will keep with
the higher probability outcome that keeps Nevada dry with a cool
front passing through Tuesday morning changing winds from the SW
to the WNW and eventually W as the upper flow turns more Zonal for
Wednesday but doing little else weather wise. Thursday and Friday
upper ridge will shift east and build NE over the southern plains,
as another northern stream upper trough digs south off shore of
the Pacific NW, this will re-establish the dry southwesterly flow
aloft over much of the west as the upper trough struggles to make
headway over the Pacific NW for the weekend.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

A fairly benign forecast period with little model disagreement
yields high confidence in dry conditions, warming temperatures,
and breezy SW afternoon winds. Confidence exists in high
temperatures that will contribute to a potential for Heat Risk to
develop for areas through Monday, and for Thursday and Friday of
next week, but less so after Monday evening for potential fire
weather concerns late next week as ensembles are in disagreement
on timing and positioning of low pressure systems near the Pacific
NW for Tuesday of next week, and into next weekend (Days 8 and
9).


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next
24 hour period. Breezy winds this afternoon up to 12-15 kts, gusts
20-25 kts at all terminals, dissipating to variable winds
overnight with the exception of KTPH and KELY staying at 10-11
kts.

AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to communications issue.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected across all fire zones over the next
week as high pressure builds to the south, producing northwesterly
flow. Southwesterly winds elevate to 15-20 mph sustained, gusts up
to 20-25 mph this afternoon and into the evening hours,
dissipating overnight. Tomorrow, wind speeds looking to elevate at
the same speeds in the afternoon with stronger winds more towards
central Nevada. Afternoon min RH values expected below 15% across
all regions with fuels anticipating to remain approaching critical
levels through the weekend. Tomorrow, RH values expected to be
below 15% in the afternoon.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97