Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
912 FXUS65 KLKN 022052 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 152 PM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 151 PM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025 * Cumulus buildups and virga, as well as a few dry thunderstorms across central/northern NV possible today. * Monsoonal moisture continues to build in from the south through the week. * Dry will give way to wet thunderstorms as areal coverage also increases during the week. * Dry conditions return for the weekend as upper flow sifts to the WSW bringing in drier air. && .UPDATE... Issued at 151 PM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025 No updates are planned for this package. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Tuesday) Southerly upper level flow look to open a new period of shower and thunderstorm development for the Silver State starting Tuesday afternoon. The pattern is book ended with a broad upper level ridge located over the four corners region, and a upper level trough that is offshore trying to push in over the west coast. This set up will allow for monsoonal moisture to be pulled over the Great Basin from the Gulf of California. Tuesday will see mostly convective build ups and virga, but moisture will be enough for a 10% to 20% chance of a few dry thunderstorms across western and central NV north to the OR/NV border. Wednesday afternoon will see chances increase to 20% to 40% of thunderstorms with a mix of wet and dry storms. Thursday and Friday chances peak at 30% to 70% area wide. There is also a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday as PW values rise north of one inch, and combined with slow storm motion will create a risk of flooding. Also the only exception to this is far NE Elko county as PW values will range in the 0.6 to 0.75, much lower than the rest of the state, which will keep the risk for dry thunder here. Saturday will see the upper trough lift into Canada as the upper ridge shifts into southern California. This will change the orientation of the upper flow to be out of the West-Southwest. This change will persist into next week leading to much drier conditions especially after Sunday as storm chances end. There is a bit of a disagreement in the upper pattern between the models for next week. The GFS has a strong but dry upper low over eastern Oregon, whereas the EC has strong ridging aloft over Nevada. Either solution favors WSW flow and dry conditions with only potential difference being temperatures. As for temperatures, a cooling trend will be underway as moisture and clouds increase during the week. Highs will start in the mid 80s to mid 90s Tuesday, cooling into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Saturday afternoon. For Sunday through Tuesday Highs will remain in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will not be as cool with clouds on the increase as low range in the low 50 to mid 60s through Sunday morning. Low do cool Monday and Tuesday of next week as lows return to the mid 40s to mid 50s FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the development of afternoon isolated to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across central and northern Nevada this week. There is high confidence in the change over from dry to wet thunderstorms, with the marginal risk of excessive rainfall by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions forecast to be the primary flight conditions through Wednesday. There is a 10% to 20% chance for dry thunderstorms with VCTS possible for KTPH, KELY between 20Z and 03Z this afternoon. Elsewhere convective buildups will be possible through 03Z with the possibility of virga and gusty winds, but no precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Mid day Tuesday moisture and instability from the trough to the northwest will create isolated dry thunderstorms for fire weather zone 437 and maybe the western portion of zone 438. Better moisture riding southerly flow will create a mix of isolated wet and dry thunderstorms (more dry than wet) for fire zones 424, 425, 426, 427, and 438 through Tuesday evening. Continued southerly flow will make for a similar setup on Wednesday over central Nevada for fire weather zones 424, 425, 426, and 427. Afternoon RH values on Tuesday will near criteria level for all zones, but the increased moisture push from the south will keep RH values well above criteria levels on Wednesday. Strong, gusty winds will not be a factor over the state through Wednesday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...99