Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
721 FXUS65 KLKN 281637 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 937 AM PDT Mon Sep 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few strong thunderstorms possible in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening * Showers likely in East Central Nevada today * Warming trend Tuesday through Thursday * Unseasonably warm Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of low pressure will progress southward across California this afternoon. This cyclone aloft will pivot eastward and progress through Southern Nevada tonight. Rain chances will be highest in Southeastern White Pine County today and tonight. A few strong thunderstorms are conceivable in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. A ridge of high pressure will build across Northern Nevada Tuesday through Thursday. An anticyclone aloft will be centered over Southern California Friday. This upper-level area of high pressure will move eastward across the Desert Southwest this weekend. A warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, high temperatures in Northern and Central Nevada will be around ten degrees above normal. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal values Friday through Sunday. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 80 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Friday, October 2nd, 2026: Tonopah - 97% Elko - 95% Battle Mountain - 95% Carlin - 95% Eureka - 95% Winnemucca - 90% Ely - 90% Wells - 90% Spring Creek - 85% West Wendover - 80% FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. High forecast confidence in the likelihood of showers in East Central Nevada today. High forecast confidence regarding a warming trend Tuesday through Thursday. Moderate forecast confidence in temperatures remaining well above seasonal values Friday through Sunday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, will be in the vicinity of KELY, KENV, and KTPH this afternoon into tonight. Direct impact cannot be ruled out. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. A warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, high temperatures will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 87