539
FXUS63 KLMK 302312
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
712 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and less humid conditions continue through Friday afternoon.

* Showers and thunderstorms will return late Friday night and
  Saturday. Some strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday,
  along with heavy rainfall and possible flooding issues in spots.

* More scattered shower/storm activity possible through the middle
  of next week, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

It`s another pleasant day across central Kentucky and southern
Indiana as surface high pressure remains over the region. Light NE
winds will continue into tonight, as well as some mid-level cumulus
that has developed over the past few hours. The area of surface high
pressure will begin to shift to the east tonight, but dry
conditions will continue into Friday. Overnight lows will be
slightly warmer than this morning, but will still be below average
for this time of year with temperatures in the low 60s.

For Friday, the surface high pressure will continue to shift off to
the east as a mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains begins
to move towards the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Conditions will be dry
on Friday, but cloud cover will increase as the day progresses.
Winds will also shift from the NE to the SSE Friday morning,
allowing some warmer air to move in over the area. Highs will be in
the upper 80s in the afternoon, with some places potentially
reaching 90 (10-20% chance).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The stretch of unsettled weather over the region begins Friday night
as a nearly vertically stacked upper-level low moves in from the
west, with the low closing off in the process. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase as the night progresses as a 20-30
kt SW LLJ out ahead of the low will advect in a warm and moist
airmass. PW values will quickly increase, with the latest LREF
depicting a transition from 1.2-1.4" to 1.9-2.1" by Saturday
morning. While some heavier downpours will be possible with this
first wave of showers and storms late Friday night/Saturday morning,
the threat for severe weather is very low. Overnight temperatures
will be milder, dropping into the upper 60s/low 70s.

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday
ahead of the low`s cold front moving through Saturday evening/night.
Recent guidance has been showing a developing band of showers and
storms along the cold front Saturday afternoon/evening, though there
is still some uncertainty regarding the intensity of these storms.
Over the past few model runs, there have been disagreements on a few
factors, including: placement/timing of the surface low and cold
front, how long the morning convection lasts over the area, and how
much destabilization occurs before the second wave in the
afternoon. The modest 25-30 kt SW LLJ will continue to pump in warm
and moist air, with dew points rising into the low 70s. Places that
get less rainfall from the Friday night/Saturday morning wave could
destabilize more, with the most recent LREF outputting >1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE in parts of central Kentucky.

Though modest low-level wind shear and backed SSE surface winds
ahead of the surface low do result in enhanced low-level curvature
on model hodographs, weaker deep-layer shear would be another factor
that could limit the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms.
The SPC currently has most of the area under a Marginal Risk for
severe weather, with the main threat being damaging winds as well as
a low-end threat for a tornado or two. This continues to be a
conditional risk for severe weather late Saturday, with confidence
still remaining fairly low. With the elevated (1.9-2.1" PW) amount
of moisture over the area thanks to the persistent LLJ, a localized
flooding threat is possible from the rainfall on Saturday. The WPC
has us under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Ensemble
precipitation totals have trended slightly down in recent runs,
though widespread amounts of 1-2" with locally higher amounts still
possible.

Following the passage of the cold front Saturday evening/night, the
vertically stacked low will remain situated over the Ohio Valley
through midweek, resulting in chances for diurnally driven showers
and storms during the afternoon hours Sunday through Wednesday. The
low will finally push off to the east on Thursday, with lower
chances for showers and storms as well that day. Maximum
temperatures Sunday-Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s while
the low remains overhead, climbing into the upper 80s once the low
begins to depart.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 711 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Pleasant flight conditions will continue through the forecast
period, with VFR expected. Winds will go light and VRB overnight,
but will settle on a light SSE direction for the daytime tomorrow.
We`ll see upper level cigs build in from the west later tomorrow
afternoon, though will remain VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CJP