540
FXUS63 KLMK 281045
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
645 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Pleasant and dry weather continues through at least Tuesday with
  highs in the mid to upper 70s/low 80s and mostly clear skies.

* Temperatures will begin to warm back into the mid to upper 80s mid
  week ahead of rain chances returning late Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Surface high pressure continues for the area providing pleasant
conditions and mostly clear skies. With the clear skies and light
winds this morning, isolated valley fog may develop this morning but
is not expected to cause impacts due to the dry airmass aloft.
Temperatures today and Tuesday will be very similar to yesterday
with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Nighttime lows will remain
in the upper 40s and low 50s. The surface high pressure will remain
over the region until it begins to shift east early Wednesday
morning. Southerly flow will return to the Ohio Valley by Wednesday
after. This will bring warmer temperatures (upper 80s) for mid week
along with moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Thursday - Sunday...

A upper level low pressure system near the west coast will merge
with the remnants of Hurricane Polo, and continue to move toward the
Central Plains. On Thursday, this system will lift into the northern
jet stream leaving a shortwave trough to the west of the Ohio
Valley. Additionally, a shortwave disturbance over the Great Lakes
region will interact with the ridging. Rain showers will return to
the area late Thursday into Friday as a cold front pushes toward the
region and moisture is advected into the region. Rainfall amounts
across the area are expected to range from 1-1.5", with possible
localized high amounts. At this time no severe threats are expected
as guidance has instability very low and marginal shear. Rain
chances will continue through the weekend, although confidence is
low due to disagreement in guidance. Depending on the movement of
the front will depend on the time that a post frontal area of
surface high builds in. If the cold front moves through the area
slower than rain showers could linger through the weekend. Other
guidance indicates that the front will push through and high
pressure will take over by late Saturday. A relief in temperatures
back into the mid to upper 70s are also expected post frontal
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds are currently calm to light out of the north across the area.
Valley fog is currently in isolated areas across the CWA, but not
causing lowered CIG. A more northerly component will continue into
the day with a slight increase to 5-10kts. Mostly clear skies with
few to scattered high cirrus clouds moving in from the NW during the
evening hours. Winds will shift easterly by the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...CAL