473
FXUS63 KLMK 310531
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
131 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered daytime shower/storm chances will return
  across southern KY for Labor Day, and then all other locations
  through mid to late week.

* A strong front will bring another shot of cool and dry air to the
  region late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Quiet weather continues through tomorrow as expansive surface high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends influence into our
area. Temps remain a bit below normal with highs expected to be
mostly in the upper 70s and low 80s this afternoon. Mid 80s are
likely across southern KY. Another chilly night expected under light
NE surface flow and a few upper clouds. Most values drop into the
low to mid 50s. Highs will be similar tomorrow with upper 70s to low
80s for most. A few mid 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Sunday Night - Monday Night...

The end of the holiday weekend remains mostly dry with slightly
cooler than normal temperatures. The exception to the dry forecast
will be the isolated to scattered shower and storm chances across
southern KY Monday PM along a well-advertised inverted surface
trough. Models have remained consistent with the timing/placement of
this feature, so confidence is pretty high in at least some activity
mainly south of the parkways. The rest of the CWA remains dry for
Monday. Highs reach the low to mid 80s on Monday, and expect chilly
night`s with lows mostly in the 50s. Could see some low 60s by
Monday night.

Tuesday - Thursday...

A more active pattern looks to take hold through the middle of the
week as a deep trough envelopes the eastern half of the CONUS.
Initial shower and storm chances for Tuesday will be along that same
surface boundary from Monday, however as we get deeper into Tuesday
and Tuesday night we`ll also get an additional nudge from the first
of two shortwave embedded in the parent trough rotating into the
region. This will expand convective chances to the entire CWA,
although still expecting just scattered in nature. By later
Wednesday into Thursday, an anomalously deep H5 closed low then digs
into the Great Lakes, with better forcing and deep moisture
transport ahead of the trough axis into our area. This will result
in the highest coverage/best chances for showers and storms across
the area. Still some differences among models in exact
placement/timing/strength of the upper closed low, but overall
confidence is high in fairly good coverage of measurable
precipitation. The trend in precipitation amounts has trended
downward a bit over the past 24 hours, so it doesn`t appear we`ll
get much relief from our newly formed drought conditions. For
context, WPC has gone with values mostly in the .5" to .75" range.
LREF 30/00z probabilities for greater than a half inch of rain
remains mostly in the 40-60% range across the area. Probabilities
drop off to 20-25% for total rainfall over 1". Temps remain below
normal under the troughiness with values in mostly in the upper 70s
to around 80 for Tue/Wed, then cooling off by Thursday into the low
and mid 70s.

Thursday Night - Saturday...

Another shot of cool air and drier conditions look to take hold for
the late week into the weekend as deep troughing remains over the
eastern CONUS and Canadian high pressure builds in behind Thursday`s
passing cold front. Lows by Friday morning will likely be in the 45
to 50 degree range, with highs on Friday only into the low and mid
70s for most. Temps begin recovering by Saturday to the upper 70s
and low 80s, but still below normal. Record cool max Ts and could be
in Jeopardy Thur/Fri, as well as record lows Friday morning.
Something to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast
period. Besides some high level clouds, skies remain clear. Winds
will remain out of the northeast, mostly under 10 knots, but gusts
to around 16-17 knots will be possible this afternoon at SDF and
LEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...KDW