575
FXUS63 KLMK 230714
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly cloudy skies are expected across the region today.
  Scattered rain showers are likely in areas along and east of I-75
  this afternoon.  Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to
  around 70.

* Clouds will slowly mix out Thursday with highs warming back into
  the lower 70s.

* Crisp/cool mornings are expected for Friday/Saturday mornings
  where lows may bottom out in the lower-mid 40s across the
  Bluegrass region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite and observations reveal mostly cloudy skies across the
region this morning with temperatures in the lower 60s.  For the
remainder of the overnight period, a mix of low clouds and some
patchy fog and drizzle will continue across the region with
temperatures remaining in the lower 60s through sunrise.

For today, low clouds are expected to remain entrenched over the
region as an upper level trough axis moves through the region.  At
the surface, an inverted surface trough will be found from eastern
TN and into eastern KY.  These two features will lead to an
extensive area of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly over
central and eastern Kentucky.  Locally, the best chances of rain
will be along/east of the US 27/127 corridor with the highest
chances of rain being over in the I-75 corridor and points east.

NBM guidance hasn`t handled this low cloud situation all that well
with respect to temperatures.  Therefore we have gone with the
cooler guidance and very close to the 23/00Z HREF which will yield
highs in the upper 60s to around 70 in most locations. Lows tonight
will cool into the upper 50s to around 60 in most locations.

Moving into Thursday, upper trough axis is forecast to move off to
the east with the trough axis closing off into an upper level low
over the Mid-Atlantic region.  The upper flow will be blocky over
the eastern US with a northerly to northeasterly flow expected over
the Ohio Valley.  The main forecast challenge on Thursday will be
how much cloud cover we`ll see.  Model soundings continue to look
rather pessimistic here with low-level moisture trapped below an
inversion around 850 mb.  If that pans out, another day in the upper
60s to around 70 can be expected.  For now, have blended the
guidance to a 50/50 HREF/NBM blend with highs around 70 in the
northeast with a warmer gradient out in the I-65 corridor and points
west with low-mid 70s.  By Thursday night, we`ll start to eventually
mix out the inversion aloft which should allow skies to clear a bit
more.  Overnight lows will likely exhibit a gradient with low 50s
over the Bluegrass region and mid-upper 50s in the I-65 corridor and
points west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Friday through Tuesday...

Moving into the late week, the upper flow across the eastern CONUS
will remain blocking with a strong ridge building from the lower MS
Valley northward into the western Great Lakes while a deep upper
level low will be found over the NE US.  We should see much drier
air working into the region with some building heights coming in
from the west.  With partly to mostly sunny skies expected, we`ll
see temperatures moderate a bit.  The coolest readings will be in
the northeast/Bluegrass region with lower 70s, but mid-upper 70s
will be found in the I-65 corridor and back into western KY. Clear
skies and light winds will allow good radiational cooling to occur
Friday night and Saturday morning with lows dropping into the lower-
mid 40s over the Bluegrass with mid-upper 40s in the I-65 corridor
and western KY.

Ridging will continue to build across the region for Saturday
resulting in a beautiful fall day with a decent amount of sunshine
and highs topping out in the 73-78 degree range.  Lows Saturday
night will drop back into the upper 40s/around 50 in the Bluegrass
with lower 50s across the I-65 corridor and back toward the I-165
area.  Highs on Sunday will be similar to Saturday with perhaps a
bit of high cloudiness moving into far western KY.  Will go with
highs in the 74-79 degree range here with overnight lows in the
upper 40s/lower 50s.

For Monday/Tuesday, flow pattern will change slightly across the
CONUS with a deep upper and surface low bringing very showery/windy
conditions to the NE US while a ridge will be found across the
central US.  The Ohio Valley will remain in a northerly flow aloft
on Monday transitioning to more of a westerly flow by Tuesday.
Temperatures should continue to slowly moderate on Monday with highs
in the upper 70s east of I-65, and west of I-65, we`ll see highs
mainly in the lower 80s.  Further moderation is expected by Tuesday
with highs warming into the lower 80s in the east with mid-upper 80s
in the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 147 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Cool northeasterly flow will continue across the region overnight.
Low stratus will continue across the region with a mix of IFR/LIFR
cigs and MVFR/IFR visibilities.  Some improvement to conditions are
expected during the morning hours with cigs rising back up into the
MVFR range.  Expect scattered showers in the afternoon over in the
LEX/RGA corridor with mainly dry conditions at SDF/HNB/BWG.  Cigs
will likely drop back into the MVFR range again Wednesday night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ