363
FXUS63 KLMK 031839
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
239 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Upper level low will result in continued rain chances through the
   weekend.

*  Cooler temperatures and rain shower chances are expected to
   continue into tomorrow and Monday, with showers becoming
   gradually more isolated.

*  Daily afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms are possible mid-
   to-late next week. Severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

Latest surface analysis shows the frontal boundary now stretching NE-
SW roughly from LEX to BNA. Radar continues to show widespread
showers, with occasional embedded thunderstorms, moving NE along and
just behind the boundary while wrap around showers are beginning to
pop up across portions of IN and western KY. Current KY mesonet
observations are reporting temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60
under cloudy skies.

Hi-res models continue to suggest a break in the rain this evening
behind the frontal boundary, though model soundings show enough low
level saturation to result in periods of drizzle, especially
overnight and into tomorrow.

The surface low will slowly advance to the NE as an upper level low
closes off and stall over the KY. This will result in continued
light rain and drizzle chances under low cloud ceilings and cooler
temperatures.

Total rainfall amounts so far have varied across the CWA with
western and eastern KY seeing 0.25 to 0.50 inches, while a stripe of
higher accumulations from roughly Logan County to Harrison County,
KY receiving over an inch with pockets of over two inches. The big
winner is the Shelby County Mesonet site that received 2.40 inches
over the past 24 hours. From now through Sunday, expecting an
additional 0.50 to 1.50 inches. This is below flood guidance, so
only expecting minor issues if anything.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

Sunday Night through Monday Night...

The upper low will remain over the region on Monday, keeping
conditions similar to the weekend. Another day of cooler
temperatures, off and on showers, and overcast skies.  Temperatures
will be about 10-14 degrees cooler than normal. Monday night, the
upper low will begin to push off to the northeast and bring rain
chances with it.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...

As the rex block pushes northeast, ridging and weak surface high
pressure will briefly move over the Ohio Valley. Tuesday will be our
best chance at dry conditions and scattered skies. Should also see a
return to near normal temperatures for Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday - the end of the week...

Very low confident pattern beginning Wednesday next week as there is
a remnant upper low over the southern Plains and an eastern Canadian
trough. Depending on how these two features interact, could bring
varying outcomes for weather in the Ohio Valley. However these
features interact, it will bring increased chances for rain by
Wednesday.

These two features could phase bringing a deep trough through the
region. These features could also remain separate bringing a trough
through the northern CONUS and the cut-off upper low over the
southern Plains would drift over the southeastern CONUS. Will
continue to closely monitor these trends over the next few forecast
periods.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

Surface frontal boundary is moving through central KY today as an
upper low parks over the region for the next few days, resulting in
poor conditions. Look for varying conditions throughout this TAF
period, with MVFR to IFR being predominate. Embedded thunder is
possible, but confidence is low. Expect mainly light rain throughout
the day, turning to light drizzle overnight and into tomorrow. VIS
and CIGs will drop to IFR overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CG