805
FXUS63 KLMK 042348
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
648 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A weak system moves through the TN/OH Valley tonight, which will
  bring light snow and mixed precip to south-central and
  southeastern Kentucky. Light snow accumulations up to about 1
  inch is possible.

* A roller coaster of temperatures awaits us over the next several
  days. We will see highs in the low 30s and highs in the upper 40s
  on and off each day as cold fronts move through.

* The active weather pattern will bring chances for light precip,
  but mainly liquid until late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Low-level moisture under an inversion continues to keep low stratus
over the region. We have seen some areas in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky break out a bit. This has helped temperatures to
increase just above freezing.

This evening, a weak trough and plenty of CVA will move through the
region. An upper jet will place southern Kentucky under the right
entrance region. At the surface, a low pressure system over the Gulf
coast will extend an inverted surface trough into the lower Ohio
Valley. Present moisture (0.75-0.9 inch PWATs) and large scale lift
will allow for stratiform snow to move over southern Kentucky. There
is a region of enhanced frontogenesis and low-level convergence
along the trough that may lead to moderate snowfall over the Lake
Cumberland region for a few hours. Both deterministic and ensemble
guidance has indicated slightly higher snow totals as well.
Therefore, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Lake
Cumberland region from 0Z to 12Z for snow totals around 1 inch. The
southeastern portion of the region (outside of the advisory) have an
SPS for totals around 0.5 inches. It is possible that some localized
areas will see slightly higher totals. Looking for a pretty wet snow
(lower than normal snow to liquid ratio). Therefore, we could see
some slick spots develop on roads.

Snow will push east of the region before sunrise, but clouds will
remain through most of the day. In the afternoon, we will begin to
break out from NW to SE. Conditions will remain dry and temperatures
a bit warmer than the previous days, in the upper 30s and some lower
40s. Friday night, low stratus will likely increase as low-level
moisture is present.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

On Saturday, a cold front will approach the region from the
northwest, as the parent upper trough swing through southeastern
Canada. This front will likely stall just northwest of the region.
Meanwhile, the lower Ohio Valley will see some WAA, which will help
temperatures increase into the upper 30s to mid 40s for highs on
Saturday.

On Sunday, a shortwave riding along the broader troughing will push
the cold front through the region and bring a chance for precip.
Given the previous WAA and timing of the system, would expect this
system to bring mostly rain, though it could begin as frozen precip
Sunday morning.

After the front pushes through, high pressure and strong CAA will
build in behind. Temperatures on Monday will be chilly. Wind chills
in the morning will be in the teens over most of the region.

Tuesday, we will see ridging build over the region and temperatures
warm to slightly below normal levels. Deep troughing looks to swing
through the region on Wednesday, bringing a low pressure system
through the northern Ohio Valley. Since we will be under WAA, expect
precip associated with this system to be mostly rain. Though strong
CAA and an occluding low could bring a cold air chasing wrapped
moisture scenario where we see some light frozen precip on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

An area of low pressure will slide across TN tonight, bringing a
band of light snow along a line from BWG to RGA and points south. At
all forecast sites, light NE winds and MVFR/IFR stratus are expected
through the night, with intermittent visibility drops possible due
to light snow at BWG and RGA and mist/fog at LEX and HNB. Flight
categories are expected to bottom out between 09-14Z Friday before
the low pressure system begins to exit the region. Improving
categories are expected from NW to SE during the day on Friday,
though the speed at which low stratus scatters out and VFR
conditions return is only medium confidence. Winds should be light
and variable Friday morning, eventually backing around to the S/SW
by the end of the current forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for KYZ075-078-
     081-082.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CSG