613
FXUS63 KLMK 261836
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
236 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather continues through Friday, with chilly nights and warm
  afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning (except
  Wednesday), mainly in river valleys.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not
  expected until Halloween weekend, with medium-high confidence (60-
  70%) in dry weather on Halloween. More active weather returns in
  early November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Now - Friday Night...

Dry conditions will persist through the entire work week as high
pressure and upper ridging dominate the pattern. The upper ridge
does break down briefly mid week, and a weak and moisture starved
shortwave passes through the flow early Wednesday. However, with dry
air in place doubt we`d see more than an increase in mid to upper
level sky cover with this feature.

Should mostly be a persistence forecast this week, outside of
slightly warmer temps by the end of the week thanks to better SW
flow on the back side of retreating surface high pressure. Highs
will mostly be in the mid 70s through Wednesday, and then in the
upper 70s by Thursday and Friday. Chilly mornings will continue with
lows mostly in the 40s. One exception will be early Wednesday
morning when the increased cloud cover associated with the
aforementioned shortwave will keep temps a bit milder in the low 50s.
In addition to the chilly temperatures, river valley fog will be
prominent each morning outside of Wednesday morning. Again, because
of notably increased sky cover.

The main themes during this prolonged dry stretch continue to be
worsening drought conditions, and any fire weather concerns. A call
with fire partners today revealed the small fuels are still not all
that concerning given good RH recovery each night. That being said,
another week of drying combined with slightly better wind flow late
week could lead to a few wildfire concerns.

Saturday - Monday...

The upper ridge axis and surface high pressure shift eastward going
into the weekend, and focus will shift upstream to western and
central CONUS troughing and potentially multiple strong shortwaves
ejecting out. Our earliest rain chances (fairly low) arrive on
Saturday, however the better chances will be Saturday night into
Sunday as the lead shortwave ejects out. Still not a lot of clarity
with this system, but again, there has been a consistent signal for
precip chances at least in the likely range 60-80%. Could have a
brief lull in active weather on Monday between the lead wave and
another potent anomaly set to arrive more in the mid week time
frame. Overall, temps trend a bit cooler through this period given
the increased cloud cover and precipitation, however we will likely
still be above normal for this time of year in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

High pressure continues to control the region and will continue to
bring prevailing VFR conditions. The one exception will be the
continued brief fog issues at BWG/HNB that we`ve seen each morning.
Not going to mention in the TAF yet as it is erratic and short-lived
but will note that this is likely to happen again tonight. Will
continue with some upper clouds through the period with light SE
winds tonight going to SSE winds on Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJS
AVIATION...BJS