289
FXUS63 KLMK 031507
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1007 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Some slick spots may be possible on roads this morning, especially
  for any roads that were not completely cleared off yesterday.

* Cold, dry weather likely through today. There is a slight chance
  for brief light snow or flurries late tonight across southern IN
  and northern KY. No accumulation is expected for our area.

* There is a chance for light wintry precipitation on Friday,
  especially across the southeastern half of Kentucky. Forecast
  confidence remains low for this time frame.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low level moisture trapped underneath a stout inversion has kept low
stratus over the Ohio Valley this morning. This stratus is expected
to remain through most of the day. We could see some thinning over
the east, though chances are low. Additionally, light snow is being
observed as some flurries are being squeezed out of the low-level
moisture and stratus. For this reason, have increased cloud
coverage, decreased high temperatures, and added in a 10% for light
flurries from the overnight forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

A low stratus cloud deck is covering the entire forecast area early
this morning as low level moisture remains trapped underneath a
stout inversion. ACARS soundings at SDF indicate this inversion is
around 900 mb, with very dry air above the layer. This low level
moisture has been enough to squeeze out some snow flurries early on
this morning, which have been observed at LEX last evening, and at
KSDF and here at the Weather Forecast Office overnight. While there
remains a low end chance for some patchy freezing fog this morning,
the amount of low stratus and limited clearing may prevent much of
any fog from developing. If we do end up with some patchy instances,
then some slick roads may result as temps are in the low to mid 20s.
Otherwise, given the cold temps across the region this morning, any
secondary roads that still had snow/slush on them last night have
now likely froze over and may be slick. Primary roads should be in
good shape, but secondary roads may not be, and could cause some
minor impacts this morning for anyone that travels on those
secondary roads.

For today, a large dome of sfc high pressure will be situated over
the entire region, leading to dry weather and eventual decreasing
clouds. We could hang on to the low stratus through the entire
morning hours, but we should begin to see improvements and some
peaks of sun by the afternoon. Temps for today are expected to reach
above freezing, with mid 30s for most, and some upper 30s and low
40s across south-central KY.

For tonight, shortwave troughing north of the Great Lakes will
support a cold front to dive southeastward through the Ohio Valley
and produce some light snow for portions of the Great Lakes and the
northern Ohio Valley. However, our southern IN counties could end up
seeing some light snow during the overnight, but moisture is
expected to be fairly limited this far south and accumulations are
not expected. Better chances for minor accumulations will be north
of our forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

===== Thursday - Friday =====

Thursday is expected to be dry, but chilly, as CAA and sfc high
pressure builds behind the cold front that comes through the area
early in the day. Temperatures will likely range quite a bit across
the area, with southern IN counties remaining at or below freezing,
but our Lake Cumberland area expected to reach the low 40s.
Regardless, well below normal temps are forecast to continue into
the late week as we remain under progressive zonal flow aloft and
sfc high pressure to our north.

Our attention then turns toward Thursday night and into Friday
morning, as an upper level trough across the southern US supports an
area of sfc low pressure to move along the Gulf Coast, bringing
precip to much of the Deep South and possibly as far north as
Kentucky. However, deterministic solutions continue to differ on the
northward extent of the precip, with the GFS more suppressed to the
south, but the Euro bringing light snow to at least the southern
half of the forecast area for Thursday night and Friday morning.
This variation continues into the ensembles, with not much of a
signal in the GEFS member suite, but a much stronger signal with EPS
and CMC members, though there is considerable range in snow amounts
between the members. Confidence remains somewhat limited, but
regardless this wave will likely have weaker forcing this far north,
and limited moisture available. Will keep low-end chances in the
forecast for light wintry precip, with the best chances across
southern and southeastern KY. With that in mind, NBM PoPs are
probably too far north and linger too late into the day on Friday,
so some trimming or straying away from NBM may be needed in upcoming
forecasts.

Otherwise, temps on Friday are expected to range from mid to upper-
30s north of the KY Pkwys, to low 40s to the south.

===== Weekend - Next Week =====

Yet another upper level trough could try to develop off to our west
over the weekend. However, forecast confidence is lower by the
weekend and model diverge even more. Increasing model spread makes
it impossible to try to pin down any specific time periods for
precipitation. Again, it`s a fairly progressive flow pattern which
could bring periodic precip chances every couple days or so. Highs
look to range through the 30s and 40s, with lows in the 20s. Low
confidence continues into early next week, but we could eventually
see temps return to near normal by the Tue-Wed time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

IFR cigs are across the region this morning, with flight category
impacts expected throughout much of today as low stratus lingers. We
may see gradual improvements to MVFR during the forecast period.
However, there is much lower confidence in the cig/flight cat
forecast, as there is much uncertainty regarding if we will return
to VFR or not. Otherwise, winds will generally be from the south-
southwest today. In the extended forecast for SDF, cigs are forecast
to drop back down to MVFR and IFR during Thursday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP