578
FXUS63 KLMK 081149
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
649 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded slightly westward
  and extended until 1 PM EST.

* Wednesday, a cold front brings limited rain chances north of the
  parkways.

* Cooler air arrives for the weekend. Highs in the teens and lows in
  the single digits are possible for some.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 419 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

As a shortwave in the upper trough begins to push east into the
Lower Ohio Valley, we are beginning to see an increase in returns on
radar as saturation is starting to reach the DGZ. Temperatures have
continued to fall from near 40 at 2z to just above freezing along
Interstate 64. The cooling trend will continue as precipitation
chances increase in the coming hours. Snow will develop over
southern Indiana and over most of central Kentucky northeast of
Bowling Green. Accumulations are expected to range from a dusting to
slightly over an inch with the highest amounts expected in the
Bluegrass.

Early this afternoon, precipitation will push east out of the CWA.
Skies will try to clear from the northwest to southeast throughout
the day, but continued northerly winds will limit high temperatures
to the 30s.

Tonight, surface high pressure, centered over Michigan and western
New York and extending southwest to eastern Texas, will be over
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This will calm winds under
mostly clear skies, leading to radiative cooling. Temperatures fall
into the upper teens to mid to upper 20s with the coolest
temperatures over the Bluegrass.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 419 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tuesday, with the surface high east of Kentucky and a surface low
over the western Great Lakes, the pressure gradient over the Lower
Ohio Valley will drive southwest wind gusts to around 25 mph. Even
with some early cloud cover, high temperatures will rocket to the
low 40s to near 50.

Wednesday, northwest flow will carry a low pressure system near the
Indiana/Michigan border. This will drag the systems cold front
through the CWA during the day, and with strong WAA in place ahead
of the front, highs are expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s,
leaving precipitation all rain. Behind the front, Wednesday night,
CAA drops lows back below freezing with temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s.

Thursday and Friday continue to show a decent amount of uncertainty
in model guidance. Northwest flow remains in place, funneling
additional light precipitation chances towards southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, and with temperatures during the day being
slightly above freezing and slightly below at night, there could be
some mixed p-types. The better signal is will cooler temperatures
heading into the weekend.

This weekend, upper ridging continues to amplify over the West
Coast, keeping northwest flow through the CWA. Arriving Canadian air
is expected to drop high temperatures into the upper teens and 20s
with lows in the single digits to teens for some.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

As a shortwave pushes east through the region, snow showers continue
moving over SDF, LEX, RGA, and soon BWG. Snow at HNB has already
ended. Ceilings remain in the IFR to MVFR range with improvements
behind the snow. Visibilities are dropping as snow rates increase.
Winds will remain out of the north through the day before flipping
to the south tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     KYZ035>037-039>043-049.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW