795
FXUS63 KLMK 300759
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
359 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered daytime shower/storm chances will return
  across southern KY for Labor Day, and then all other locations
  through mid to late week.

* A strong front will bring another shot of cool and dry air to the
  region late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, keeping northwest
flow over the CWA with high pressure at the surface extending from
the Great Lakes. Winds remain out of the northeast behind the front
that dropped south through the CWA yesterday. This is expected to
limit high temperatures to the mid 70s in southeast Indiana to the
mid 80s near Bowling Green.

Tonight, northwest flow will likely carry in extra cloud cover from
upstream precipitation, but skies are expected to remain mostly
clear over the Lower Ohio Valley. With northeast surface winds
continuing and with pockets of passing clouds, radiative cooling
could be slightly limited, but temperatures are still expected to
drop into the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the rest of the holiday weekend, the Great Lakes centered
surface high will remain over the Lower Ohio Valley, keeping the
forecast dry and mostly sunny for Sunday, but for Monday, an
inverted surface trough extending through the Tennessee Valley could
generate scattered showers across southern Kentucky, mainly in the
Lake Cumberland area. Some of the shorter time frame models keep
precipitation farther south and east of the CWA, but the Euro and
GFS have chances entering the CWA with diurnal warming. At the very
least increased cloud cover can be expected. Temperatures remain
about the same with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s for highs and
lows mostly in the 50s with some upper 40s possible.

Tuesday through Thursday remains the active period of the forecast.
Northwest flow ushers in a fairly strong shortwave on Tuesday. This
helps to reinforce the upper trough by widening it farther westward
as it brings widespread scattered showers and possible afternoon
thunderstorms to the CWA. Chances remain but will likely begin to
taper off on Wednesday before a cold front arrives early on
Thursday. This will bring an end to rain chances. Tuesday and
Wednesday will see highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, and with the
front coming through on Thursday, highs may not make it out of the
60s for some along and north of Interstate 64.

Friday and Saturday is shaping up to be the beginning of a nice
weekend. Behind the front, cold air advection will limit highs to
mostly the 70s with a few low 80s possible on Saturday, and with
surface high pressure moving towards the Lower Ohio Valley and upper
ridging following the departing upper trough, skies will clear and
be mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as high
pressure extends south from the Great Lakes. Dry air should keep the
airports fog free later this morning. Later today, northeast winds
will increase to around 7-9 knots with gusts slightly higher.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW