646
FXUS63 KLMK 250856
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
356 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...Updated Forecast and Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds this morning up to 35-40mph over southern and
  central Kentucky as the LLJ passes through the region.

* Widespread light to moderate rain showers today and into the
  evening.

* Much cooler and drier air arrives for Thanksgiving and Friday.

* A lot of uncertainty remains around the weekend as the chance for
  unsettled weather continues.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

With the LLJ overhead and an unexpected clearing of precip, we are
seeing some of the winds aloft mix down to the surface. With the LLJ
expected to remain over the region through mid morning and
strengthen a bit around sunrise, have issued an SPS for winds up to
35-40mph. Do think we will remain below wind advisory criteria, but
if trends continue to increase, one may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Upper troughing and a surface low pressure system will swing through
the region today. Ahead of the front, a 40kt LLJ has overspread the
region. This has ushered in better moisture and PWATs around 1.25
inches. Stratiform rain is pushing into the region from the SW this
morning and will exit to the NE by the afternoon along the cold
front. Isolated to scattered showers may remain behind the cold
front and east of I-65. Model trends continue to decrease the amount
of elevated instability over the region, but could see a few rumbles
of thunder around sunrise through the afternoon. Over our very far
SE, could see a storm move through along the front, though not
expecting severe weather.

Tonight, a surface low pressure system will move through the Great
Lakes region, dragging another cold front through the lower Ohio
Valley. This cold front will provide stronger CAA, where
temperatures will slowly fall through the day on Wednesday.
Additionally, a 40kt LLJ will brush the lower Ohio Valley and a
tightening pressure gradients will bring breezy winds through the
day on Wednesday. Look to see sustained winds around 15-20mph and
wind gusts up to 30mph. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will
fall into the low 40s, which will bring wind chills down to the low
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thanksgiving - Black Friday...

High pressure will build in from the west on Thursday, bringing much
drier and sunnier conditions. Cooler weather will stick around for
the holidays. Look to see highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Thursday morning lows will be in the mid-to-upper 20s and Friday
morning will be quite chilly in the upper teens and low 20s.
Thursday will not be as windy as Wednesday, but will likely see
gusts up to 20-22mph. These winds will make it feel about 10 degrees
cooler all day.


Weekend - Early Next Week...

On Saturday, surface high pressure will shift to the east and winds
will veer to the south helping to increase low-level moisture. There
is still much uncertainty, however long range guidance seems
consistent on bringing a system through by Sunday. Given the colder
airmass over the lower Ohio Valley, the track of the system will be
important. If the system tracks over Kentucky or south, we could see
a chance for snow or rain/snow mix. If the system tracks north, it
will remain as rain. The remainder of the weekend and into the next
week continues to look unsettled and keeps precip chances in the
region, though ensembles and deterministic guidance is really
struggling to create a picture of what that looks like.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

A 40kt LLJ has overspread the region at this hour and will bring
LLWS to the terminals. We are currently sitting with VFR CIGs and
VIS as lower CIGs and rain will steadily move in from the west.
Expecting to see MVFR CIGs by sunrise over the northern half of the
region. Southern areas will have a few hours after sunrise before
they see MVFR CIGs. Northern sites may also see high-end IFR after
sunrise. The precip shield will work NE over the region through the
morning. After this exits, isolated to scattered showers will remain
through the evening. Overnight, low CIGs will steadily push east and
lift.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW