692
FXUS63 KLMK 031039
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
639 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Early fog will begin to dissipate after sunrise.

* Two cold fronts will bring additional chances for rain Wednesday
  night/Thursday and Friday night/Saturday. Expected rainfall
  amounts are unlikely to significantly alter current drought
  conditions.

* Cooler and drier air returns this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

This morning, yesterday`s rainfall, clearings skies, light winds,
and falling temperatures are expected to lead to patchy dense fog
and low stratus over parts of the CWA. Conditions are expected to
quickly improve after sunrise.

Today, a shortwave riding southeast into the Lower Ohio Valley along
the upper trough that has been parked over the eastern US will push
the stubborn inverted surface trough off to the southeast. This will
help to keep southern Indiana and central Kentucky drier than
yesterday, but it`s looking a little more likely that isolated to
scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two could develop
along a boundary south of the Kentucky parkways later this
afternoon/evening. Precipitable water values of near an inch or
slightly higher and models soundings with limited instability and
shear should keep any activity uneventful. Most will see lots of
sunshine, and with light warm air advection highs are expected to
reach into the low to mid 80s.

Tonight into Thursday, a cold front approaches from the northwest
bringing widespread showers to the region. Most of the CWA could
receive between 0.25-0.75" of rain by the time the front and
associated showers exit the CWA by Thursday night. Most locations
will likely see a total closer to the lower end of the range (or
even less), but there will likely be some overachievers too. Given
the time of day, a near surface stable layer should help to limit
any severe weather. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the upper
50s to mid 60s before cold air advection behind the front limits
Thursday highs to the low to mid 70s over most of the CWA. In
southern Kentucky ahead of the CAA, highs could reach into the upper
70s to even the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Thursday night, right behind the cold front exiting the CWA, the
center of a surface high will drop southeast through the central of
the CWA. This will bring a quick return to warm air advection into
the CWA, lifting Friday temperatures back into low 80s to low 90s
under mostly sunny skies early in the day, but by the evening into
overnight hours, a second cold front approaching from the northwest
will begin increasing rain chances. Rain showers with chances of
thunder look to become likely by Friday night into the first half of
the day on Saturday before clearing off to the southeast during
Saturday afternoon. Cold air advection behind the front is expected
to knock highs back into the low to mid 70s. A few may only see the
upper 60s.

Towards the second half of the weekend into early next week, high
pressure and upper ridging work into the area before the upper
ridging becomes more zonal on Monday. This is expected to keep skies
mostly sunny on Sunday and Monday as temperatures inch up day by
day. Precipitation chances begin to increase by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Mid-level cloud cover has helped to keep fog development limited,
but HNB has already dropped down to half a mile. Other sites could
see some fog if given clear skies. This afternoon and evening,
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible at LEX, BWG, and
RGA. Chances remain too low to add to the TAFs. Tonight, ahead of an
approaching cold front, rain showers will move southeast over the
TAF sites. This will begin affecting ceilings late tonight into the
day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW