085
FXUS63 KLMK 240530
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1230 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Areas of dense fog likely tonight into Monday morning, which may
  impact the morning commute.

* Otherwise, dry and mostly cloudy on Monday with highs in the 60s.

* Widespread light to moderate rain showers are likely Monday night
  and Tuesday, and there is a slight chance for a few
  thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected.

* Much cooler air arrives for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low stratus that has lingered over western and central KY today has
begun to expand and even lower this evening. This along with areas
that have been clear will start the see the redevelopment of dense
fog across our CWA for another night. After collaborating with
neighboring WFOs, looking at the strong signal for fog in the model
guidance, decided to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
overnight into tomorrow morning until 11a EST/10a CST for all of our
CWA. Other than this no changes were made to the overall forecast at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

We are still struggling to mix out the last patch of low stratus
this afternoon, due to lingering moisture trapped beneath a low-
level inversion. Low clouds may linger in western portions of the
CWA, mainly south of I-64 and north of the WK Pkwy, into the evening
hours. However, these clouds continue to slowly erode on both the
the northern and southern edges. This band of moisture also
stretches into the Bluegrass Region, where we`ve had a few more
stratocu today.

Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 40s in Etown and
Hardinsburg beneath the low clouds, to the mid/upper 50s in mostly
sunny areas. The sunnier locations are likely to top out in the
upper 50s and lower 60s this afternoon. Partly cloudy to mostly
clear conditions are expected this evening as sfc high pressure
moves directly overhead. Late tonight, the sfc high starts to shift
east of the area. The BL will again decouple nicely, with winds
becoming calm or very light overnight. Temperatures will drop fairly
quickly late this evening, and conditions appear favorable for
another round of dense fog and low stratus tonight into Monday
morning. HREF probabilities of visibility less than a half mile are
fairly high (50-80%) across most of the CWA early Monday morning.
Areas of dense fog are likely to impact the morning commute.
Considered going ahead and issuing another Dense Fog Advisory, but
the areal extent is difficult to nail down several hours ahead of
time. After discussing with neighboring WFOs, will highlight the
potential for dense fog in a Special Weather Statement. Dense fog
will also be mentioned in the public forecast, HWO, and
WxStory/messaging.

Temperatures are forecast to range from the low 30s to low 40s
Monday morning, with low 30s most likely in parts of southern IN and
the northern Bluegrass. Tomorrow, a low pressure system is forecast
to spin east across the central and southern Plains. We`ll have
mostly cloudy skies, with fog/low stratus in the morning as well as
increasing high clouds ahead of the Plains system. The bulk of
Monday will stay dry due to dry air in the lower levels. However,
scattered light rain will be possible west of I-65 by 21-00Z Monday
evening. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s
across the northern CWA to the mid 60s in south-central KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Monday Night - Tuesday...

An upper level shortwave trough will deamplify as it races northeast
from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. A weakening sfc low will
drift across the Ozarks and perhaps Lower OH Valley. However, we
will see a healthy 50 kt southwesterly LLJ overspread the forecast
area Monday night as the wave lifts across MO/IL. Strong moisture
transport and increasing ascent will result in the development of
widespread rain showers, which are forecast to continue into
Tuesday.

A plume of very modest MUCAPE should extend northeast into central
KY Tuesday morning into early afternoon. This would support a small
chance for an isolated rumble of thunder. However, the risk for
severe weather remains low. More substantial destabilization
and an associated severe weather risk will remain confined to
the Deep South. Expect much warmer than normal temps during this
period, with highs in the 60s.


Tuesday Night - Friday...

A sfc cold front will cross the region Tuesday afternoon and
evening, though some light precip will remain possible into Tuesday
night. Lows mostly in the 40s look likely, though the Bluegrass and
Lake Cumberland regions may only dip to around 50 by 12Z Wednesday.

However, a deeper low pressure system over the Upper Midwest and
western Great Lakes will drag a strong cold front through the region
Wednesday morning. Much colder air will flow into the region on
Wednesday via breezy westerly winds. Strong CAA will limit temps to
the 40s and low 50s during the daytime, and the gusty west winds
will limit wind chills to the 30s and 40s.

Cold high pressure then gradually builds in from the northwest
through Friday, setting us up for a chilly Thanksgiving and Black
Friday. Lows in the mid 20s to around 30 look possible for
Thanksgiving morning, while highs on Thanksgiving will only reach
the upper 30s to mid 40s. Friday morning will be colder, with lows
around 20-25 degrees.


Weekend...

A digging upper level trough still looks possible across the western
US next weekend, with generally deep SW downstream into the OH
Valley. Friday night appears most likely to stay dry with the
remnant cold, dry airmass in place. However, low precip chances
gradually return over the weekend. A relatively weak low pressure
system may try to spin up over the Plains again, before lifting off
to the northeast. We`ll likely remain on the warm side of any
potential system, keeping p-types as primarily (if not entirely)
rain late in the weekend and early next week. Saturday could still
end up dry, though. Plenty of uncertainty remaining on how exactly
everything plays out over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Dense fog has blanketed the region and continues to expand and
thicken. Visibility is down to a quarter mile nearly everywhere and
will remain through sunrise. Similar to yesterday, it will take a
little while for fog this thick to thin and lift. Wouldn`t expect
VFR conditions until 15-16Z. After fog thins, BKN-OVC upper skies
will move in ahead of some precip chances that will enter the region
from the west after sunset. Winds will remain light and mostly out
of the SE today and tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW