991
FXUS63 KLMK 272304
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
704 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory continues through this evening.

* Chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms each day
  through Tuesday.

* Less humid conditions arrive next Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Clusters of storms continue across central Kentucky early this
evening.  Main cluster of storms remains across our southwest CWA
where a northward moving outflow boundary has helped kick off an
area of strong to severe storms with torrential rainfall.  Current
mesoanalysis suggests that we have about 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE,
but wind shear remains remarkably weak.  However, strong buoyancy is
allowing updrafts to surge up and collapse producing isolated wind
damage in spots.  Overall pulse type storms will continue for the
next 2-2.5 hours mainly in the I-65 corridor.  Numerous outflow
boundaries may kick off additional areas of convection, though much
of central KY has been convectively overturned this afternoon.

The other issue with the lack of shear is the the lack of strong
environmental flow.  Storms that have developed are moving slow and
the combination of warm cloud depths, and PWAT values up in the 1.9-
2.1 inches will allow these thunderstorms to produce torrential
rainfall with isolated flash flooding.  Rainfall amounts under these
storms will be in the 2-2.5 inch range, though some isolated amounts
of 3-4 inches will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

High pressure ridging that has dominated our hot weather this past
week is weakening and getting pushed east by troughing coming over
the Midwest. A surface front will approach but wash out north of the
area this weekend. That will bring more widespread coverage of
rainfall Saturday. Again, not talking about all day rainfall, but it
will be active and the number of storms we expect should keep
temperatures from climbing as much as this week. That same coverage
should help limit severe potential as well, but with above-normal
precipitable waters we will have to watch for localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Rain chances stay up Sunday as we don`t get a true frontal passage
Saturday. The moist airmass will remain in place Sat. night through
at least Monday night. NBM even goes with categorical pops (80-100
percent) for Monday. Again, given the moist airmass in place, we
will have to watch for areas that receive multiple storms. Current
WPC outlook shows a marginal risk for flooding, but I wouldn`t be
surprised to see an upgrade to slight risk there are we narrow down
the forecast over the weekend.

Tuesday we should get a frontal passage to give us a couple of dry
days for midweek. Another trough looks to pass by Thu/Fri time, but
it won`t have as much moisture to work with, so NBM has slight
chance pops for now on Friday. Temperatures should stay more
seasonable for highs this period, though lows early in the week
will be above normal with the moisture in the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Area of convection across central Kentucky will continue for the
next hour or so and then diminish.  VFR conditions are expected at
the TAF sites through the upcoming TAF period.  The exception may be
BWG where some patchy fog could develop late tonight, though the
guidance isn`t all that impressed with those chances.  For Saturday,
look for additional storms to fire up by late morning and through
the afternoon.  Outside of storms VFR conditions are expected, though
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys are likely within storms passing through the
terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM....RJS
AVIATION.....MJ