861
FXUS63 KLMK 071913
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
313 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend. Locally heavy
    downpours possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning
    across western and southern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Tonight, the surface high will be focused just south of us moving
toward eastern Tennessee. As a result, there will be mostly clear
skies and dry conditions. After a breezy afternoon, the winds will
become more light and variable overnight as the high pressure shifts
eastward. Temperatures will lower into the mid to upper 50s. Close
to sunrise, convective cloud debris from the decaying MCS over
Missouri will filter over our area. By sunrise tomorrow, expect
increasing mid- and high-level cloud cover.

For tomorrow, low rain chances will spread eastward as the remnants
of the overnight MCS continue to dissipate. NBM is very bullish on
precip chances tomorrow, but given high res model soundings showing
very dry air in the lowest 3km, have decided to back off on PoPs
slightly. Decided to lower PoPs to 20-30% with the highest chances
north of I-64. We can expect some scattered showers tomorrow
afternoon over southern IN, and isolated showers for the rest of KY.
With increasing cloud cover throughout the day, little to no
instability is expected, so thunderstorm chances remain low.
Temperatures for tomorrow will range from mid to upper 70s for
southern IN, and upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Saturday Night through Monday Night...

Saturday night will feature a cold front slipping in from the
northwest and then slowing down in southern KY by dawn Sunday.
Nocturnal low-level jet will be in play, but not anywhere as strong
as what we saw Friday night.  PWATs will be in the 1.75-1.9 inch
range along that front so primo juice will be available for
convection.  Overall convective evolution here is still a bit
muddled as the HRRR has some sort of MCS rolling through the central
part of our CWA while the 3KNAM, Euro and GFS have an MCS rolling
through mainly southwest and far western KY.  For now, will keep
higher end chance PoPs going for the overnight until we get a bit
more forecast convergence within the next few model cycles.  Overall
severe threat looks pretty low here, but if we get a forward
propagating MCS, then gusty winds and torrential rainfall would be
the main threats.  PoPs should continue into Sunday morning with
drier conditions likely in the wake for the afternoon/evening.
Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 60s.  Highs Sunday will
likely be in the upper 70s to around 80.  Sunday night lows will be
cooler behind the front with lows in the upper 50s.  Dry and less
humid conditions are expected for Monday and Monday night with highs
in the upper 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the low-mid 50s.

Tuesday through Friday...

Moving into next week, the pattern will start off with a trough axis
along the east coast with some upper ridging over the Ohio Valley.
This trough axis will move east and the flow over the Ohio Valley
will remain in a west-northwest type pattern.  Earlier forecasts
showed a mid-level perturbation working through around midweek.
However, latest ensembles and deterministic runs have shifted this
feature more to the south and west here.  Additionally the GFS and
its ensembles have reversed course here and are now much more dry
through the period, which matches the Euro.  Perhaps the next chance
of precipitation may arrive in the Thu/Fri time frame as a stronger
wave in the northern stream pushes through the Great Lakes which may
bring at least some iso-sct showers/storms to the region.

Temps will remain below normal for Tuesday with highs in the upper
70s to near 80.  Lower 80s look likely for Wednesday.  An uptick in
temps looks likely for Thursday as highs will warm into the middle
80s.  Latest blend is suggesting upper 80s and lower 90s by Friday.
That seems a bit aggressive given the relative moist soil conditions
and lush vegetation across the region.  More than likely, highs will
top out in the mid-upper 80s by late week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

High pressure will keep VFR flight categories ongoing through the
forecast period. Gusty NW winds this afternoon will relax by the
evening hours as the sun sets, and become more light and VRB by the
overnight. SKC expected overnight, but clouds will be on the
increase through the mid-morning ahead of a decaying convective
system from Missouri. Eventually could see VCSH by the late morning
or early afternoon, but no impacts to flight categories are
expected. Towards the end of the period, ceilings will be lowering
to around 5-10k ft.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP/LMP
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CJP/LMP