529
FXUS63 KLMK 300904
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
404 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Morning rain and possible light snow for the start of the day with
  falling temperatures and brisk gusty winds for the end of the
  weekend.

* Brisk winds and reinforcing cold today will result in wind chill
  values in the upper teens and low 20s.

* Another system will move through the region Monday night into
  Tuesday, bringing a chance for accumulating wintry precipitation.
  Exact precipitation types and amounts is still uncertain, but
  adverse impacts to Monday night/Tuesday morning travel is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 402 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold front entering western KY will push eastward fairly quickly
this morning and should start to enter central KY by around 12z and
then quickly move through the CWA by the afternoon. Radar mosaic has
a band of light to moderate prefrontal precipitation, mainly in the
form of rain stretching from Paoli to Tell City to Owensboro with
winds gusts of 20-25 mph ahead of this with a few gusts near or over
30. Temperatures as of writing the discussion were in the low to
even mid 40s, but KYMesonet showed mid 30s entering the Common
Wealth to the west.

By the time most start the day, a west to east temperatures gradient
of low 30s to the northwest and low 40s to the east-southeas will be
evident. Temperatures will fall or hold steady into the low/mid 30s
through the day with gusty winds out of the west between 20-25 mph.
Most if not all of the precipitation should have exited the area by
late morning with mostly cloudy skies over the area.

High pressure will build in from the west tonight increasing the CAA
over the area tonight with partial clearing and diminishing winds.
Temperatures will fall to near 20 degrees for most locations by
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Confidence remains high for a wintry weather system to bring
potential impacts to central KY/southern IN Monday night. While
confidence is high that this system will bring wintry impacts,
considerable uncertainties remain in wintry p-type, the amounts and
where and who will see what when it is all said and done late
Tuesday.

Sfc high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes Monday morning. Morning lows will be cold with most location
around 20 degrees. A mid-level shortwave trough will work eastward
from the southern Rockies bringing an mP air mass with light snow
expected across the central plains. This disturbance will meet up
and help further development of a sfc low coming out of the Gulf. As
this system develops and sfc high pressie moves east towards the
Atlantic, Gulf moisture will be drawn northward into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys by Monday night along with the Pacific moisture
arrive from the west with the mid-level shortwave. As was mentioned
in the previous discussion, models continue to keep the track of the
sfc low more to the south with the snow/mix/rain line further south
as well.

While the deterministic models slowly come into some agreement,
there remains challenges on overall strength of the dynamics as well
as how much moisture and warm air advection we will see over the
region. The GFS continues to show higher precipitation amounts
compared to the ECMWF but the ECWMF is cooler continuing to show a
more favorable thermal profile for mainly snow. Forecast trend
though has been for less amounts that what had been seen in previous
forecast runs. Given the current trend in guidance over the past
couple of days and the lowering of potential precipitation amounts
with each forecast run, this forecaster tends to agree with the
previous discussion that, as of now, it appears unlikely that this
event will meet warning-level criteria for snow/ice amounts. With so
many unknowns and variables i.e. placement and cutoff of the
rain/freezing rain/sleet snow line which will likely shift a few
more times before Monday, while confidence is high many will see
potential impacts, confidence remains low on all the finer details
when it comes to precipitation amounts and types.

By Tuesday morning, forecast trend does indicate that all
precipitation could change over to all snow for a brief period
before the system quickly moves east by the afternoon. Temperatures
will be in the 30s with mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be quiet and dry as sfc high pressure
is expected to build in over the region. Temperatures will remain
below normal in the upper 30s to near 40 on Wednesday and then a bit
cooler on Thursday as a weak cold front drops in from the north with
maybe just a few flurries but mostly cloudy skies.

The next consistent signal for precipitation shows up by the end of
the week as another shortwave trough coming out of the Four Corners
and Rockies meets up with yet another sfc low developing over the
Gulf. This system looks warmer than the storm expected Monday night
into Tuesday but some wintry mix of rain/snow is still possible at
the onset Friday morning and possibly Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 126 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Strong sfc low working will continue to pass to our north as a cold
front currently entering western KY, will push through central KY
and southern IN later this morning. Gusty southerly winds continue
from the tight pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front.
Some wind gusts of 25 to 30 Kts are still possible as low CIGs
around MVFR and IFR will be likely during the forecast period. As
the front passes, we could get a few more rain showers and strong
wind gusts as winds veer more to the west as the front pushes
through.

Main challenge for later today will be CIGS around LEX and SDF.
Expect a 3K ft cloud deck to cut off somewhere around SDF/LEX the
question is how far north or south with this area be. For now,
decided to air on the side of caution as history shows it is hard to
scour out low stratus post system. Will carry MVFR CIGs through the
forecast period for now. Winds are expected to diminish later this
evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN