230
FXUS63 KLMK 080801
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
301 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread dense fog expected this morning.

* Next cold front will arrive tonight with showers and maybe a
  rumble of thunder.  Colder weather expected for Sunday with snow
  showers Sunday night and Monday.  Minor accumulations possible in
  the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.

* Very cold weather expected Monday and Tuesday morning with lows in
  the upper teens to lower 20s with wind chill values in the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Early morning observations reveal widespread fog across Kentucky and
far southern Indiana.  Visibilities of 1/4 of a mile or less were
concentrated across much of south-central and east-central Kentucky.
Fog was also noted across far southern Indiana, mainly just along
and north of the Ohio River.  Slightly drier air was noted in areas
north of I-64 in southern Indiana which has kept visibilities up in
this area.  Temperatures were mainly in the mid 40s across southern
Indiana with upper 40s/lower 50s across north/east-central KY with
upper 50s down across the Bowling Green area.

For the remainder of the overnight period, combination of clear
skies, light winds, and damp ground from previous rainfall is
expected to keep fog entrenched across the region.  Visibilities
will vary over a given distance though most areas will see
visibilities of 1/4 of a mile or so.  Some low-lying and fog prone
areas may see visibilities reduced to zero in some cases.

For the daytime hours, we expect the fog to mix out by mid-late
morning (9-10 AM local time) with mostly sunny skies for the
remainder of the day.  A broad southwest flow will allow
temperatures to warm into the low-mid 60s across southern Indiana
and north-central Kentucky.  Across southern Kentucky, highs will
warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

For tonight, a surface low pressure system is forecast to trek
eastward across central Indiana while dragging a cold front through
our region.  A band of showers will accompany the front as it passes
through.  Model soundings show very little surface based
instability.  However, steep lapse rates aloft are present and some
elevated instability will exist.  So can`t really rule out some
rumbles of thunder with this activity as it passes through.  Much
colder air will arrive behind the front with Sunday morning lows
bottoming out in the upper 30s to around 40 in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Sunday through Monday Night...

Aforementioned surface low pressure center is forecast to be in
eastern Ohio/western West Virginia by Sunday morning.  A strong
northwest flow will continue across the region on Sunday with lapse
rates steepening through the day.  Plentiful cloud cover and cold
advection will make the day raw and blustery with light drizzle/rain
showers throughout the day.  Temperatures on the day will likely be
early in the day as cold advection will allow temps to generally
fall through the afternoon hours before settling into the mid-upper
30s by evening.

For Sunday night, northwest flow and strong cold advection will
continue in earnest.  Model soundings continue to show lapse rates
steepening with time as a core of very cold air aloft overspreads
the region.  Light rain showers early in the evening will quickly
transition over to light snow showers and continue through the night
with temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 20s by morning.  Gusty
winds will be a problem as well allowing wind chill values to fall
into the upper teens by Monday morning.

In terms of winter impacts for Sunday night, the overall impacts
continue to look rather limited here for several reasons.  First,
ground temperatures are still quite warm across the region.  4 inch
soil temperatures from the KY Mesonet show readings in the upper 50s
to the lower 60s, and 20 inch soil temps are still in the upper 50s.
These ground temps will not likely change all that much even with
the cold air arriving on Sunday and into Sunday night.  Secondly,
overall forcing for convective snow continues to look rather
limited.  Model soundings do show plenty of moisture in the DGZ for
snow growth.  However, the best lift remains primarily off to our
east and northeast.  While temps will fall into the mid-upper 20s by
Monday morning, some very minor accumulations look possible mainly
in areas east of I-65.  In the I-65 corridor, a coating on elevated
surfaces, decks, and rooftops will be possible.  Some grassy
accumulations may be achievable over in the Bluegrass region, in
areas east of I-75 if heavier precipitation develops.  Some slick
spots are possible, but these are going to be mainly on
bridges/overpasses.

On Monday, a fairly strong upper level low will drop into the region
from the northwest.  With the coldest air aloft overspreading the
region, steep lapse rates and continued moisture within the DGZ
should promote snow showers across the region.  Impacts to travel
continue to look marginal here as temperatures through the day are
expected be in the mid-upper 30s.  These air temps combined with
warm ground will likely limit any accumulation.  However, the
convective nature of the snow shower activity may reduce visibility
at times as these snow showers transverse the region.  Drier air
will filter into the region by Monday night shunting much of the
snow showers and flurries off into far eastern KY.  The main story
for Monday night will be the cold temps with lows dropping into the
upper teens to around 20 by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Friday...

The early week arctic blast will be short lived as sharp upper level
trough quickly moves east of the region on Tuesday.  A broad
northwest flow aloft will continue across the eastern portion of the
country bringing dry weather to our region.  In the lower levels, a
southerly flow will quickly get re-established and allow
temperatures to warm during the week.  We`ll likely see a gradient
of temperatures for Tuesday with highs in the lower 40s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 50s down in the Bowling Green area.  By
Wednesday and Thursday, highs will be back into the mid-upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Some light precipitation is possible late Thursday and into early
Friday as a weak perturbation and warm advection scheme may result
in some elevated convection across the region.  Signal has been
there in models for the past several days.  Temperatures on Friday
should trend warmer with low-mid 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Surface cold front continues to press eastward and out of KY early
this morning.  Behind the front, skies have cleared and with light
winds and wet grounds, dense fog has developed across much of the
region.  The worst of the fog will be southeast of a line from HOP
to EKX to CVG.  South and east of this line, widespread dense fog is
expected with vsbys staying around 1/4SM overnight through about
08/14-15Z.

For this update, have taken KBWG and KLEX down to 1/4SM FG with
VV002-003 for the remainder of the night.  KSDF looks to stay VFR
for a few hours, but we may see vsbys dip to around 4SM there by
08/08Z.  Rapid improvement will be seen across the region with a
return to VFR after 08/15Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     INZ084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ