833
FXUS63 KLMK 292044
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
344 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Rain showers will move through the region this evening into
  tonight, though precipitation amounts will be light. An brief
  initial period of sleet or snow may mix in this afternoon, but
  little to no impacts are expected.

* A reinforcing blast of cold air arrives tomorrow, with wind chills
  in the upper teens and low 20s.

* Another system will move through the region Monday night into
  Tuesday, bringing a chance for accumulating wintry precipitation.
  Exact precipitation types and amounts is still uncertain, but
  adverse impacts to Tuesday morning travel is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 344 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

This afternoon, cool and mostly cloudy conditions are present over
most of the area, with a bit of filtered sunshine still breaking
through along the TN border at this hour. Radar returns have
continue to move across portions of the area, with precipitation 10+
kft AGL evaporating/sublimating as it encounters dry air near the
sfc. There is a strong temperature gradient from north to south
across the area as a warm front is draped across the region, with
temperatures ranging from the mid-to-upper 30s north of I-64 to the
mid-to-upper 40s along the TN border.

Later this afternoon and evening, the plume of low-to-mid level
moisture which has remained to the west of the area so far today
will begin to slide east across our area. This should allow a couple
bands of showers to push through the area around sunset, continuing
through the evening hours. Give the low-level dry air and an
initially marginal thermal profile, wouldn`t be surprised if the
initial wave of precipitation had some sleet or snow mixed in;
however, this should quickly change to rain as temperatures warm
throughout the column. Later tonight, a 55-60 kt LLJ will move
across the area, and while stability near the sfc should keep most
of the stronger winds aloft, breezy southerly winds are expected
overnight. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph are
likely overnight. This will keep temperatures fairly steady in the
upper 30s and low-to-mid 40s until the cold FROPA arrives Sunday
morning.

After the first wave of showers tonight, a mid-level dry slot is
expected to work across the area. While scattered light rain showers
and drizzle will continue, this will cut down on rain totals, with
most locations receiving less than a tenth of an inch.

The cold front should begin to move across the area in the pre-dawn
hours Sunday, clearing into eastern KY by the mid-to-late morning
hours. Winds should swing around to the west behind the front,
bringing strong CAA into the region. As a result, temperatures will
be fairly steady in the 30s or may even fall into the 20s during the
daytime hours on Sunday, especially north of the WK/BG Parkways.
Wind chills will likely be stuck in the upper teens and low-to-mid
20s Sunday afternoon. Low clouds are likely to continue across much
of the area tomorrow, though areas south of the Parkways would have
a better chance to break out of the low clouds. Where the better low-
level moisture exists farther north, occasional flurries or drizzle
can`t be ruled out.

Sunday night, winds should gradually subside as high pressure slides
across the Midwest. Mostly cloudy skies, but dry weather, is
expected across the area. What will be most notable during this
period will be the continued cold temperatures, with readings
falling into the low-to-mid 20s Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 344 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Monday - Tuesday...

The ingredients for a wintry weather system continue to come
together for the Ohio Valley for Monday night into Tuesday, though
considerable uncertainties remain which will impact precipitation
types and amounts.

Monday morning, sfc high pressure will be located across the Midwest
with temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s across the area. During the
day on Monday, an upper-level shortwave ejecting out of the southern
US Rockies will support the development of an area of low pressure
over the western Gulf which will draw moisture northward into the
Tennessee and Ohio valleys by Monday night. Model guidance has
trended toward a more suppressed upper shortwave with the latest run
of guidance, leading to a more southerly storm track and a southward
shift in the rain/mix/snow line across the area.

The more amplified solutions (e.g., Canadian, GFS) bring stronger
WAA and moisture advection into the region, resulting in greater
precipitation totals, but also increasing the potential for
mixed/liquid p-types. In contrast, the suppressed solutions (e.g.,
ECMWF) keep a more favorable thermal profile for predominantly snow
as the p-type, but also limit the moisture, increasing the
probability of remaining dry or only seeing light precipitation
amounts, especially along and north of the OH River. With all of the
potential failure modes which exist with this system, forecast
confidence in snowfall/wintry precip amounts is still not
particularly high, and the expected rain/mix/snow/dry cutoffs will
likely shift over coming days. With all this being said, it is
fairly unlikely that this system will result in warning-level
snow/ice amounts, as the window of moisture is pretty narrow, mainly
between late evening Monday and mid-morning Tuesday. Still, given a
relatively cold stretch of weather leading up to this event, even
lesser amounts of snow and/or ice could cause significant impacts to
travel conditions, exacerbated by the fact that much of the
precipitation should fall immediately before the morning rush on
Tuesday.

By late Tuesday morning, conditions will begin to clear, with mostly
cloudy skies and temperatures in the 30s expected during the day on
Tuesday.

Tuesday Night and beyond...

Quieter weather is expected for the middle of the week with high
pressure moving across the southeast US Tuesday night into
Wednesday. While the pattern will lead to a continuation of below
normal temperatures, there should be some moderation on Wednesday
with highs warming into the upper 30s and low-to-mid 40s. A weak
cold front is expected to bring precipitation chances as it crosses
the Great Lakes mid-week; however, it looks like we will mainly see
increased clouds Wednesday night into Thursday as the tail end of
the front crosses the area. Increased cloud cover and weak cold
advection Thursday may knock temperatures down a bit, especially
along and north of I-64, with highs ranging from the low-to-mid 30s
across southern IN to the low 40s across southern KY.

The next consistent signal for precipitation shows up by the end of
the week as an upper-level wave ejects out of the Rockies, lifting
an area of sfc low pressure out of the Gulf and into the Ohio
Valley. At this time, the ensemble consensus suggests that most of
the precipitation with this system should fall as rain, with the
precipitation chasing a cold air mass out of the region. With that
being said, ECMWF p-type meteograms do show some wintry p-type
members, so we`ll have to monitor this system over coming days. An
unsettled pattern will continue into next weekend as additional
disturbances are expected to develop within the split upper-level
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

A low pressure system and an associated cold front will move across
the region later today through Sunday morning, bringing rain
showers, gusty winds, and MVFR ceilings. This afternoon, VFR
conditions should continue at all sites as mid-level clouds
gradually build down. Winds should veer to the southeast and
increase in strength later this afternoon and evening. The first few
bands of rain showers should begin to move from west to east across
the area after 21Z this afternoon. While there could be a very short
period of a mix with sleet or snow (particularly at HNB),
precipitation should change to all rain within an hour of onset.
Tonight, as the cold front moves into the area, winds should
strengthen and continue to veer to the south-southwest. 20-25 kt
wind gusts are possible later tonight, especially if low-level
stability is weaker than expected. CIGs should gradually drop to
MVFR levels from west to east tonight, and the exact timing of
category changes is a bit uncertain. Around sunrise Sunday, the cold
front should move through the area, with breezy west winds and MVFR
CIGs expected behind the front Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG