309
FXUS63 KLMK 290659
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm days, cool nights, and dry weather will continue through
  Saturday.

* Chances for rain on Sunday remain uncertain, with PoPs around 50%,
  though there is high confidence (80%) in rainfall amounts being
  less than a half inch.

* A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week, with
  showers and storms possible during the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Today through Saturday...

Mostly clear skies are observed on nighttime microphysics satellite
imagery early this morning, with an area of mid-level clouds noted
just to the northwest of the area. These clouds are associated with
very modest moisture transport ahead of a sfc cold front currently
analyzed over the upper Midwest. Over the next 24 hours, this cold
front will gradually work its way toward the area, although it is
expected to fall apart as it makes its way into the lower Ohio
Valley late tonight into Friday morning.

Today, ahead of the front, 5-10 mph SW breezes should pick up by the
late morning hours, continuing through late afternoon. This
combination of warm advection with mostly sunny skies today should
allow temperatures to reach 1-2 degrees above persistence, with
forecast highs ranging from 75-80.

This evening into tonight, the front will begin to make its way into
southern IN, likely bringing a broken band of low-mid level clouds
with it. While there is a 5% chance of a spotty shower in southern
IN, moisture will be lacking and no impacts are expected. These
clouds will keep temperatures milder along and north of I-64
tonight, with the typical ridge-valley splits being much more
pronounced across southern KY where skies should remain mostly clear.

Friday, what`s left of the front is expected to settle near the
KY/TN border, with winds shifting around to the NE in its wake as
high pressure moves across the lower Great Lakes. This should bring
marginally cooler temperatures across the northern half of the CWA
Friday afternoon, with highs ranging from the mid 70s in the north
to near 80 in southern KY.

Friday night into Saturday, a mid-level vort max associated with the
remnants of TC Vance is expected to lift out of the southern Plains
and into the mid-Miss. Valley. This disturbance will allow mid- and
upper-level moisture to advect in from the SW, with clouds
increasing during this period. Models are now in relatively good
agreement that Saturday will remain dry across the area, as a fairly
large amount of dry air below 700 mb will have to be overcome by
modest moisture advection. With the increased cloud cover,
temperatures should be slightly milder Friday night, with highs
slightly less warm Saturday afternoon (though still above normal).

Saturday Night through Monday Night...

The disturbance referenced above is expected to slowly move across
the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday, weakening as large-scale
ridging develops across the central CONUS. There is still a fair
amount of disagreement among model families only 3-4 days out,
though there is increasing confidence that the impacts from this
system will be minimal. The ECMWF and CMC ensembles tend toward an
overall weaker system, with less moisture advection (only 1-1.2"
PWATs) and very isolated showers and most locations remaining dry.
On the other hand, the GFS and its ensembles have a stronger
shortwave and richer moisture advection (1.3-1.4" PWATs), with much
more widespread rain on Sunday. At this time, we`re looking at
roughly coin flip odds for rain this weekend, though there is high
(80%) confidence that rainfall amounts will be less than 0.50".

With mostly cloudy skies and limiting nighttime cooling and daytime
heating, diurnal ranges in temperatures will be suppressed for the
second half of the weekend into Monday, though both highs and low
temperatures will be above normal. Residual moisture may lead to
isolated showers on Monday; however, precipitation coverage is
expected to be limited by weak forcing.

Middle of Next Week...

A much more dynamic pattern returns by the middle of next week,
bringing chances for rain, possibly thunderstorms, as well as the
potential for fluctuating temperatures. A coupled polar and
subtropical stream trough over the Pacific NW this weekend is
expected to come out of phase as it crosses the Rockies early next
week, causing an overall slowdown in the system. At this point,
ensemble 500 mb height cluster analysis reveals several different
camps of model solutions, resulting in different weather impacts to
the area over the middle of next week. It is very likely that this
disturbance will eject across the region some time in the Tuesday
night-Thursday time period, bringing a wave of moisture as it passes
along with cooler temperatures behind the system. Some of the
stronger solutions could even bring a chance for strong storms into
the area, as deep-layer shear would be seasonably strong. However,
instability appears to be the main limiting factor, and AI/ML medium-
range severe convection guidance isn`t overly concerning at this
time. Regardless, we`ll continue to monitor this time period over
the next several days for the potential for impactful rainfall
amounts and strong storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions and light S/SE winds are expected across area
terminals through mid-morning. After sunrise, winds will veer to the
SW and increase to 6-10 kt for the late morning and early afternoon
hours. A few wind gusts to around 15 kt will be possible at SDF and
LEX. VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of the
current forecast period, with upper-level clouds returning near the
end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CSG
AVIATION...CSG