604
FXUS63 KLMK 140235
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1035 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Additional scattered showers and storms expected through late
   this evening. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are the main
   concerns, though isolated gusty winds and small hail are also
   possible.

*  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected over the
   weekend, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The
   potential for severe storms is low, but additional swaths of
   heavy rain would increase the risk for localized flash flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Previous forecast remains on track. There is a break in showers and
storms over the region before more scattered showers enter from the
west. Few to scattered low clouds are drifting over the region, but
most areas remain mostly clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A cutoff low over Missouri will continue to slowly weaken as it
rotates east-northeast over the Lower Ohio Valley through Saturday
night. This morning and afternoon, 35 kts of low to mid-level SW
flow on the east side of the cyclone has aided in the development of
a band of heavier showers and scattered storms. Temperatures have
been able to rise into the lower 80s in many areas east of I-65 (at
least until the arrival of steady rainfall). But widespread cloud
cover and showers pushing west to east across the region have
suppressed sfc heating and destabilization. Mid-level lapse rates
remain quite poor in a moist environment, but isolated stronger
storms may produce 30-40+ mph winds locally. The bigger concern for
the remainder of the day is locally torrential downpours, ponding,
and minor flooding. Precipitable water is approaching 2.0 inches.
Fortunately, 25+ kt cell motion is limiting the residence time of
extreme rainfall rates. These brief torrential downpours will impact
Lexington and the rest of the Bluegrass Region as head into the
start of the afternoon rush hour.

Behind the main band pushing into the Bluegrass, additional
scattered convective development looks possible through sunset.
After 01Z or so this evening, precip coverage will decrease markedly
due to increasing stability and modest forcing. Expect a warm/humid
and mostly cloudy night with lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

On Saturday, the low moves directly overhead. Scattered diurnally-
driven convection appears likely with modest destabilization and
slightly cooler air aloft. Lapse rates are still fairly poor (5.5-6
C/km). Flow through the column is weaker with the low overhead, and
a slower storm motion may increase the potential for localized
flooding. However, more widely scattered development will confine
the flood threat to pretty localized areas. Therefore, do not see
enough support at this time for a Flood Watch. Areas from south-
central KY into the southern Bluegrass, right on the eastern
periphery of the low, would have the best chance at seeing localized
swaths of heavier rain. Very narrow totals of 1-2 inches are
possible, in addition to today`s rainfall. Sfc temps should creep
into the low 80s during dry spells between showers.

Shower coverage should again drop off significantly Saturday night
with the loss of heating. The weakening low will drift across
eastern KY. Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy, with lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Sunday...

The weakening low spins over the Appalachians on Sunday, with
additional shortwave energy riding southeast over the Midwest.
Strong ridging aloft is forecast to be centered over the Southwest
and Mexico. Scattered afternoon and evening showers/storms again
look possible.

Next Week...

There is growing consensus in a decrease in shower/storm activity
for Sunday night into Monday as the remnant energy from this
weekend`s system dissipates and lifts to the northeast. The
continued humid air mass will still keep a chance for afternoon
showers and storms on Monday, but coverage should be even more
isolated.

For the middle portion of next week, the pattern could remain
relatively active with multiple mid-level shortwave disturbances
rippling from the Plains across portions of the Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Each of these could be tied to an area of convection, but
timing these waves is problematic. So will have to continue to
feature elevated PoPs each day Tuesday through Thursday. A somewhat
stronger wave could boost our severe weather (and heavy rainfall)
potential late Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 758 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Storms over HNB have dissipated to showers as the sun is beginning
to set. Light to moderate showers will continue over the next few
hours in southern Indiana. Very light rain will continue over other
terminals over the next few hours. Skies will lift to broken mid-
levels before low CIGs begin to enter from the northwest. At LEX and
RGA there is a weak signal for some patchy fog development, this is
mentioned in the LEX TAF. Scattered showers and isolated storms will
pick back up after 14Z lasting through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW