056
FXUS63 KLMK 022326
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
726 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather expected through the end of the week, with afternoon
  highs in the low to mid 80s.

* Warmer and more humid this weekend into early next week. Gradually
  increasing shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

It`s a beautiful afternoon across central Kentucky and southern
Indiana. Skies are clear, and temperatures are hovering in the 75-80
degree range. Aloft, a ridge extends from the southern Plains
northeast to the Upper Midwest. A sfc high is centered over the
Great Lakes, with low level northeast flow advecting dry air into
the Ohio Valley.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will slowly build southeast
across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday night, bringing a stretch
of fair weather. Northeast winds of 10-20 mph will diminish this
evening with sunset. Early Wednesday looks mostly clear and calm,
with lows in the low to mid 50s. Cannot rule out a couple upper 40s
in our coolest sheltered spots. Wednesday will feature mostly sunny
skies, a 5-10 mph east wind, and afternoon highs in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An upper level ridge will remain in place over the eastern CONUS on
Thursday, with sfc high pressure shifting over the Appalachians.
This will set us up for a warmer and dry end to the work week with
the onset of low-level SW return flow. Expect mid 80s to be more
common for highs, with overnight lows near normal (upper 50s and low
60s).

Ridging continues to shift over the Southeast US and offshore this
weekend. Meanwhile, multiple mid-level shortwave disturbances are
forecast to stream eastward across Canada and the northern US
downstream of an amplifying upper level ridge. At the surface, weak
low pressure appears likely to zip across southern Canada, with a
trailing cold front gradually sliding south into the Ohio Valley.
We`ll see increasing moisture availability as this boundary
approaches, with PW values increasing above 1 inch by Saturday and
above 1.5 inches Sunday.

LREF members support a 20-30% chance for rain Saturday afternoon and
evening, mainly across the northern forecast area. Scattered showers
and storms look possible across the whole forecast area by Sunday
and Monday. Expect warmer, more humid conditions this weekend into
early next week. Highs in the mid/upper 80s should be common.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Any current
gusty winds will quickly diminish in the next hour or so, with
relatively light ENE winds prevailing afterwards.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BEN