623
FXUS63 KLMK 030702
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
302 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Pleasant weekend in store outside of some scattered rain chances
   across southern KY later tonight into Sunday. Look for highs in
   the 70s.

*  Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with
   low temperatures in some areas dropping into the upper 30s to low
   40s Monday and Tuesday night.

*  Wed-Sat brings a return of the 80s with overnight lows in the
   50s; next weekend brings our next chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The surface cold front has made it into the northern Gulf Coast
states with expansive surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
region. Low clouds and patchy drizzle have cleared somewhat across
our northern half of the CWA, however may still have a few lingering
patches of drizzle across southern KY this morning where low clouds
are hanging in. Otherwise, look for a dry day with a steady NE
surface wind and variable cloudiness depending on your location.
Southern IN and northern KY are more likely to see mostly clear
skies later today, while central and southern KY have a better shot
at more cloud cover. Decided to stick with highs on the lower side
of temperature guidance given the fairly steady NE surface winds
reinforcing cooler air over the region. The better chance at
sunshine across the northern CWA will help offset this a bit, but
still looking for low and mid 70s in most spots. It is possible some
locations don`t get out of the 60s.

Will carry some scattered shower chances across southern KY into the
Lake Cumberland region later tonight into Sunday as a shortwave
moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. As this
occurs, it should be able to tap into the northern fringes over the
deeper moisture shield stretching from the western Gulf up through
the mid Atlantic. Overall QPF amounts for our southern counties will
be very light. Otherwise, look for dry conditions across the rest of
the CWA with temperatures reaching the mid 70s. Still will have a
bit of N/NE surface flow which could hurt temp recovery a bit.
Leaned on the lower side of guidance here as well.

Surface high pressure and unremarkable NW flow aloft take back hold
of the area going into Sunday night. Pretty good radiational cooling
conditions expected along with mostly clear skies will allow for
temps dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s across the area.

The upper-level low swings directly to our north Monday into
Tuesday, flattening out our UL trough into a westerly flow aloft.
This should swing our gusty surface winds around from northeasterly
to easterly by the early Tuesday morning hours. We should stay
cooler on Monday and Tuesday as we aren`t advecting warmer air from
our south or west, with highs in the lower 70s. Lows remain in the
lower 40s for the majority; however, isolated upper 30s are
possible, especially in a couple of cooler valleys across the CWA.
Tuesday keeps a west to east flow aloft that tracks down to the
surface throughout the day, and winds should weaken as they undergo
the change from easterly to westerly by early Wednesday morning.
Expect warmer highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the low 80s, with
overnight lows in the the upper 40s and low 50s, with the metro
struggling to decouple as much as the rest of the area and therefore
remaining warmer than the rest of the CWA. Saturday evening and
Sunday bring our next chance of rain showers as a tropical moisture
pushes its way north; expect warm and humid highs in the low to mid
80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s and cloud cover before
showers begin on Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The surface cold front has pushed south of the TAF sites, and an
overall drying trend has taken hold over the area outside of a few
patches of drizzle early this morning. HNB/SDF have seen a return to
VFR conditions, however still hanging onto low MVFR/IFR ceilings at
LEX/RGA/BWG. These ceilings will persist until sunrise to late
morning at LEX/RGA, and could last well into the afternoon at BWG
for improvement back to VFR. Steady NE surface winds between 7 and
12 mph are expected today as surface high pressure stays positioned
to our north over the Great Lakes. Expect lighter winds and mostly
clear skies tonight, with perhaps some fog development possible
toward dawn on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJS/JPH
AVIATION...BJS