623
FXUS63 KLMK 180141
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
941 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Warm and windy conditions are expected on Saturday. Wind gusts of
   20 to 25 mph are likely, with high temperatures approaching daily
   records Saturday afternoon.

*  A strong cold front will move through the region late Saturday
   into Sunday morning.  A strongly forced line of showers and
   thunderstorms is expected. Some storms could be strong to severe
   with damaging winds being the primary hazard.  However, a spin-up
   tornado can not be ruled out in areas west of I-65.

*  Cold front will slice through the region Sunday morning bringing
   an end to the shower activity.  However, gusty winds are expected
   through the day with gusts of 35 to 40 mph.

*  Drier and much cooler weather is expected for much of next week,
   with a small shower chance Monday night.  A potential frost will
   be possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings, especially in the
   Bluegrass region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Area radar shows a thin band of precip falling out of mid-level
clouds, which is evaporating before reaching the ground, given dry
low levels. These clouds will push through in the overnight, which
will help to insulate the region. Clouds and light winds overnight
will lead to low temperatures about 3-8 degrees warmer than Friday
morning.

No changes in the overall forecast for tonight and Saturday. Still
looking at dry conditions through the day Saturday and winds gusting
up to 25mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery and observations reveal mostly sunny
skies across the region.  Afternoon temperatures ranged from the
upper 60s to near 70 across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky
to the lower-middle 70s in the I-65 corridor.  The warmest area was
down in the Hopkinsville/Pennyrile region where readings were in the
upper 70s.  Still have a few more hours of heating to go, but the
ongoing forecast still looks good with afternoon highs topping out
in the lower-middle 70s.  Some upper 70s to around 80 readings will
be possible down between Bowling Green and Hopkinsville.  No
significant weather is expected, but we`ll continue to see an
increase in high clouds coming in from the west.

A quiet evening is expected with just some high clouds passing
through. Temperatures will likely drop off fairly quickly after
sunset with readings falling into the upper 50s/lower 60s.  Quiet
weather will continue into the overnight period with lows in the
lower-middle 50s across the Bluegrass.  In the I-65 corridor and
points west, lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60.

For Saturday, upper ridge axis across the Ohio Valley now will slide
off to the east and we will get into a strong/broad southwest flow.
Within these types of regimes, the models struggle with high
temperatures.  However, the guidance has continued to suggest highs
ranging from the lower 80s over southern Indiana and into much of
central Kentucky with mid-upper 80s down across southern Kentucky.
If current forecast trends hold, record highs could be achieved at
Bowling Green.  However, record highs at Louisville, Frankfort, and
Lexington appear to be safe at this time.  While the day will start
off with party to mostly sunny skies, high clouds will gradually
result in skies becoming cloudy by late in the day.  In addition,
southwest winds will become gusty with gusts of 15-22 mph expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...

Two upper troughs, one over the central Plains and one over TX/OK
will move eastward and merge into a deeper upper level wave which
will continue to amplify as it moves through the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes during the period.  As this occurs, a surface cold front
will plow across the Mid-MS valley and then into the Ohio Valley,
crossing through Kentucky early Sunday morning.

Ahead of the approaching trough, large scale height falls will
overspread the Ohio Valley while the lower-mid atmospheric wind
fields ramp up significantly.  A large line of convection is
expected to develop from northern TX northeast through AR/MO/IL and
into IN Saturday afternoon and evening.  This line of storms will
move eastward into the Ohio Valley aided by the stronger wind field
aloft.  The strong forcing just ahead of the front should sustain
ongoing convection as it moves into western IN/KY by the late
evening.  However, instability will quickly wane with eastward
extent across central/eastern IN/KY and western OH.

Convection is likely to enter the LMK CWA late Saturday evening and
into the overnight hours on Sunday. The overall severity of the line
remains uncertain.  However, a band, possibly broken line of
convection should be ongoing across western KY and then should push
into the I-65 corridor overnight while weakening.  With instability
waning through the night, the low-level shear will remain quite
supportive of organized convection.  Scattered nocturnal damaging
wind gusts will be possible with some storms in this line as it
pushes through.  The low-level curvature on hodographs by many of
the CAMs still shows ample curvature to support a low-end QLCS
threat, however, the limiting factor here continues to be the weak
instability.  Convective line should push into central Kentucky by
sunrise, and we may see a secondary line of showers/storms right
along the frontal interface which looks to cross the I-65 corridor
around 11-12Z.  Once the front passes through, the threat of severe
convective weather will end from west to east.

Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50 inches continue to look likely
across our region.  There could be a few spots that top 1.75 to
maybe 2 inches.  The progressive nature of this system will reduce
the residence time of heavy rainfall over a specific point, so the
risk of flooding continues to look low as of this writing.

By late Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours, the pressure
gradient will increase across the region with lapse rates steepening
with time due to the colder advection aloft.  Wind gusts of 35-45
mph will be possible across the Bluegrass region and portions of SE
IN and southern OH.  Wind gusts may be a little less in the I-65
corridor and to the south and west of there.  Here we`re forecasting
afternoon wind gusts of 25-30 mph.  If these forecasts continue to
hold, a Wind Advisory will be needed in subsequent forecasts.

Highs on Sunday will likely be early in the day prior to the frontal
passage.  Cold advection behind the front will allow temps to fall
from the upper 60s early in the day into the lower 50s by evening.
Winds will diminish through the evening as the pressure gradient
relaxes.  Some partial clearing is expected overnight with lows
dipping to around 40 degrees by sunrise Monday.

Monday through Friday...

The synoptic pattern for next week continues to look active as a
series of upper level troughs are expected to move eastward in the
belt of westerlies aloft.  Our strong upper level wave from the
weekend will continue to push east off the New England coast on
Monday with a secondary closed low rolling through the upper Midwest
and Great Lakes late Monday and into Tuesday.  Model solutions
continue to suggest that troughing will remain rather broad Monday
night and Tuesday with a limited moisture return across the region.
With the trough moving through, a few showers will be possible late
Monday as a reinforcing cold front pushes through the region.  A
fairly strong pressure gradient will be seen across the region so a
period of gusty winds is expected for late Monday and into the day
on Tuesday.

For midweek and beyond, a broad northwest flow regime will be in
place across the eastern US with high pressure holding sway across
the Ohio Valley.  Another weak trough axis will approach by late
Wednesday and into Thursday possibly bringing another round of
showers and another reinforcing shot of cooler air to the region.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the mid 60s across
southern IN and the northern half of Kentucky.  Upper 60s to near 70
degree readings will be found across southern Kentucky.  Below
normal temperatures are expected for Wednesday with highs only
warming into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will be
in the mid-upper 30s in the north with lower 40s in the south.  A
frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday morning, especially in the
Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.  Highs Thursday will moderate
some with readings warming back into the mid 60s, which should also
continue into the day on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR for this TAF issuance. A strong cold front will steadily
approach the region, leading to a tightening pressure gradient, and
therefore increased winds for Saturday. Winds will gust up to 25kts
in the afternoon. Showers and storms will approach the region after
OZ Sunday reaching western terminals around 6Z. Some storms could be
strong to severe. Outside of storms, will likely see some LLWS. More
details to come in later TAF issuances.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Record High Temperatures Possible...

        Sat, Oct 18th
        Rec (Yr) | FCST

SDF     87 (2016) | 84

LEX     87 (1938) | 84

BWG     88 (2016) | 89

FFT     88 (1938) | 85

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...SRW
CLIMATE...MJ/CSG