062
FXUS63 KLMK 100249
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1049 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...Forecast Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Friday morning will be the coolest of the season so far, with
   lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Some patchy frost will be
   possible in sheltered, rural valleys of southern Indiana and
   north-central Kentucky.

*  Dry conditions are expected through the weekend with highs in the
   low to mid 70s.

*  Gradual warming trend continues early next week, possibly seeing
   highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The forecast is on track this evening. Good radiational cooling
night expected with mostly clear skies and winds becoming light and
variable. As a result, temps expected to bottom out in the upper 30s
and low 40s for most. Some frost potential does exist for the
coolest valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Upper level ridging centered over Texas and Mexico extends north
over the Plains this afternoon, with deep upper level troughing over
eastern Canada and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. An upper
level wave over Manitoba this afternoon is forecast to swing
southeast across western Ontario tonight before moving over the
Great Lakes tomorrow. A developing sfc low occludes quickly near
Lake Superior tomorrow and drags and cold front southeast through
portions of the Midwest. This weak front will stay off to our
northwest through the short term, but we will see increasing SCT mid
and high clouds Friday night.

Until then, skies will remain mostly clear. Some scattered lower
clouds may drift north over south-central KY early Friday morning as
850 mb flow veers southerly. Sfc high pressure is forecast to shift
southeast across the Northeast US tonight. A weakening pressure
gradient and decoupled BL will allow sfc winds to diminish quite a
bit after sunset. Temperatures will tumble overnight under ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
will be common in southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky. Lows
in the low to mid 40s are forecast for southern Kentucky. Our
coolest sheltered/low-lying areas in southern IN and north-central
KY could see brief mid 30s early Friday, which could result in some
patchy frost given very light winds by that time. The frost
potential doesn`t look widespread enough to warrant a Frost
Advisory.

After the chilly start, the rest of Friday looks pleasant with
afternoon temps warming into the low to mid 70s. SCT high clouds
will start to spread in from the NW Friday afternoon and evening.
Friday night will be partly cloudy, with lows ranging from the
low/mid 40s in the Bluegrass to near 50 degrees west of I-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

====== This Weekend ======

Mid and upper level ridging gradually builds in from the southwest
over the weekend. Meanwhile, a potent low pressure system is
forecast to track northeast across the northern Plains into
Manitoba. A weaker low will drift north just off the East Coast.
Without any forcing or moisture advection of any kind, fair weather
is likely to continue. Skies look partly to mostly sunny on
Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Sunday is shaping up to
be mostly clear, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s and highs in
the low to mid 70s.

====== Next Week ======

Upper level ridging continues to gradually amplify over the region
from the southwest early next week, increasing confidence in the
continuation of dry weather. The strong Canadian storm system
continues to race off to the northeast, and its southeastward
sagging cold front doesn`t appear to have the steam to make it into
the Ohio Valley. This should also allow the slow warming trend to
continue, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle as high pressure
remains in control of the region. Light NE winds are still in place
at the moment, however winds are more likely to take on a light and
variable component later into tonight, likely lasting into Friday. A
few upper clouds may be noted later Friday, otherwise mostly clear
skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BJS