202
FXUS63 KLMK 021942
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
342 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms return
  Sunday, continuing into early-to-mid next week.

* Below normal temperatures continue Sunday into the first half of
  the week, with temperatures warming to around normal levels by
  late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Across central KY and southern IN this afternoon, a mix of sun and
clouds is observed with temperatures generally in the upper 70s and
low 80s. While dewpoint temperatures remain relatively low in the
upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s, a little bit of low-to-mid level
moisture return has supported the development of a stratocumulus
layer, especially south of I-64. Northeast winds have continued as
1028 mb sfc high pressure remains north of the area, with relative
low pressure extending from the Gulf states up toward the Cumberland
Plateau. As we head through the afternoon, partly cloudy skies and
fairly steady temperatures are expected. While a stray shower can`t
be ruled out near Lake Cumberland, most locations should remain dry
into tonight.

Tonight, the high pressure to the north of the region will start to
weaken, with the center of the high gradually passing east of the
Appalachians. As this occurs, the inverted trough which is setting
up over the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon will spread to the
north and west. This will allow higher sfc dewpoints and low-level
moisture to spread back across central KY, with PW values rising to
1.5-1.6" by sunrise. As moisture increases, isolated showers are
expected to develop across southeastern KY after midnight tonight,
spreading northwestward by daybreak Sunday. With clouds and showers
increasing, temperatures won`t cool as much tonight, with lows
expected to range from the upper 50s in southern IN to the mid 60s
across south central KY.

Tomorrow, with the inverted trough and increased moisture extending
across middle TN and south central KY, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected across central KY. Sfc dewpoints
rising into the mid-to-upper 60s will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
during the afternoon, and one or two more robust updrafts could
develop. Deep layer shear should only be around 15-20 kt, and storm
motions should be fairly slow given slow mid-level flow. Showers and
storms should be more isolated across southern IN where drier air
will remain. Given the expected gradient in clouds/precipitation
coverage, high temperatures should range from the upper 70s near
Lake Cumberland to the low-to-mid 80s along and north of the Ohio
River.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Not much change is expected in the large scale pattern over the
first half of the week as a blocking upper level high sits over
central Canada. A separate upper level ridge over the southwestern
US will attempt to spread eastward through the week and strengthen,
with heights increasing over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys during
the second half of the week. With sfc high pressure retreating into
Canada, a more typical humid summertime air mass will overspread the
Ohio Valley, with dewpoint temperatures rising into the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Temperatures will also warm toward climatological
norms by next weekend, with highs rising from the low-to-mid 80s
early in the week to the upper 80s to around 90 Friday and Saturday.
Low temperatures will also warm, rising from the low-to-mid 60s
early in the week to the upper 60s and lower 70s by the end of the
week.

Daily isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected over the week, with better chances expected Monday through
Wednesday while weak upper level troughing and the inverted sfc
trough remain close to the region. With vertical wind shear
remaining weak and fairly marginal CAPE expected, mainly garden-
variety storms are expected, with heavy rainfall and lightning being
the primary hazards with any thunderstorms. For Thursday into next
weekend, more isolated chances for showers and storms are expected,
with more locations remaining dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

This afternoon, the stratocu layer with MVFR bases near LEX and RGA
is expected to lift to VFR levels, and would expect at least FEW
stratocu at all forecast sites until around sunset. Otherwise, the
main impact this afternoon should be NE winds with occasional gusts
to 20 kt. Winds should become much less gusty by around sunset, with
light NE breezes gradually veering to the east Sunday morning. Low-
level moisture return tonight should keep a 4-6 kft cloud layer over
the region into the day on Sunday, with MVFR ceilings possible at
BWG and RGA Sunday morning. Scattered rain showers will also try to
develop Sunday morning; however, confidence in location and coverage
is too low to include in the current forecast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG